致洪暴雨天气系统特征诊断及流域洪水预测预报研究

Under the background of climate change, flood control and disaster mitigation are becoming the major needs of our country. Taking flood disasters in Huaihe river basin as the research object, together with identifying the flood-causing storm weather signal field as the main starting point, the rainstorm signal discrimination index research was carried out. The rainstorm weather circulation background and anomaly characteristics of water vapor transport were analyzed. Combined with the numerical weather prediction products, the ensemble forecast signal field could be constructed, basin hydrological model could be coupled and watershed flood forecasting project could be put forward. The project coupled with the flood forecasting model will propose practical watershed rainstorm weather system signal field criterion and develop high resolution, multi-source, multi-scale precipitation fusion products. It can also extend the flood forecast period, improve the flood forecasting accuracy and effect, and provide scientific and technological support for the real-time flood forecasting and warning as well as disaster prevention and reduction. The expected results include: 12 published academic papers (6 SCI/EI papers), 1 published monograph, 1 national invention patent and 2 software copyrights.

面向气候变化背景下流域防洪减灾这一国家重大需求，选择洪涝灾害频发的淮河流域为研究对象，以识别致洪暴雨天气信号场为主要切入点，开展致洪暴雨信号场判别指标研究，分析致洪暴雨天气环流背景及异常水汽输送特征，并结合数值天气预报产品进行集合预报信号场构建，耦合流域水文模型，开展流域洪水预测预报。项目将提出实用性的流域致洪暴雨天气系统信号场判别指标，研制高分辨率、多源、多尺度降水融合产品，实现与洪水预报模型的耦合，延长洪水预见期、提高预报精度，改善洪水预报效果，为流域实时洪水预报预警和防灾减灾提供科技支撑。预期成果包括：发表学术论文12篇，其中SCI/EI论文6篇，出版专著1本，申报国家发明专利1项、软件著作权2项。

项目面向气候变化背景下流域防洪减灾，加强洪水预测预报这一国家重大需求，选择洪涝灾害频繁发生的淮河流域等为研究对象，以识别致洪暴雨天气信号场为主要切入点，开展致洪暴雨信号场判别指标研究，分析致洪暴雨天气环流背景及异常水汽输送特征，并结合数值天气预报产品进行集合预报信号场构建，耦合流域水文模型，建立基于流域致洪暴雨天气系统识别预警的流域洪水预测预报系统，为流域防汛减灾、保障经济社会及人民群众财产安全提供科技支撑。.历经4年研发，项目全面完成了任务书规定的研究内容和指标。基于研究成果，共发表论文21篇，其中SCI/EI论文6篇，出版专著《中小河流洪水预警预报技术研究与应用》1部，申报国家专利5项，登记软件著作权7项，构建气象水文耦合的水文预报系统一套；参与相关的国内外相关学术交流会议15次，出国交流2次。