不同类型农户的农业碳排放行为差异研究-以化肥为例

Climate change is the severest global environment problem, and its main reason is carbon emission caused by human being's activities. Agriculture is an important carbon emission industry and chemical fertilizer is the main source of agricultural carbon emission except for natural source. With the development of industrialization and urbanization, a large number of rural labor force are engaged in off-farm employment, and rural households have differentiated into different types,whose carbon emission behavior must be different. So this project takes chemical fertilizer as an example studying agricultural carbon emission behavior variance among different types of rural households. . The specific content are as follows: first dividing rural households into professional farmers,ordinary pure farmers and concurrent operation farmers according to off-farm employment and farmland scale, analyzing their production characteristics and shaping mechanism; second measuring and comparing carbon density and carbon cost of different types of rural households, adopting Life Cycle Assessment(LCA) method; in the end, analyzing the reason for agricultural carbon emission behavior variance, adopting ordered probit model and multiple regression model.. The expected results of this project would rich the theory of low-carbon agricultural development and rural households behavior, and provide policy suggestions on promoting rural households differentiation, moderate- scale operation and low-carbon production.

气候变化是当今最严峻的全球环境问题，其主要原因是人为活动导致的碳排放。农业是碳排放的重要部门，除自然源外，化肥是农业碳排放的最重要来源。随着工业化和城镇化的推进，农村劳动力大量从事非农就业，农户分化为不同类型，各类型农户的碳排放行为必然有所差异。因此，本项目以化肥为例，研究不同类型农户的农业碳排放行为差异及形成原因。. 具体内容包括：首先根据非农就业和农地规模将农户划分为专业大户、小规模纯农户、一兼农户和二兼农户，分析各类型农户的生产经营特征和形成机理；其次采用生命周期评价法（LCA）测度和比较不同类型农户的化肥碳密度、碳成本，最后采用ordered probit模型和多元回归模型分析不同类型农户农业碳排放行为差异的原因。 . 项目的预期成果对于丰富农业低碳发展理论和农户行为理论具有重要的学术价值，也将为促进农户分化和农业适度规模经营、推进不同类型农户进行低碳化生产提供政策建议。

随着工业化和城镇化推进，农村劳动力大量转移，专业大户、家庭农场等新型农业经营主体不断涌现。本项目在总结、借鉴和吸收现有研究成果基础上，通过实地调查，获取一手数据，以化肥为例，利用辽宁省水稻种植户调查数据，对专业大户和小规模纯农户、一兼农户、二兼农户等普通农户的农业碳排放行为差异及其原因进行了研究。主要研究结论如下：.第一，分析不同类型农户生产要素投入状况（尤其是化肥投入）和农业产出状况，采用DEA方法测算和比较了不同类型农户的农业生产技术效率，发现种粮大户的生产技术效率高于普通农户；而普通农户中，一兼户的生产技术效率最高，纯农户次之，二兼户的生产技术效率最低。.第二，基于生命周期评价法（LCA）测度和比较了不同类型农户的化肥施用强度、化肥碳密度和化肥碳成本，发现种粮大户的化肥施用强度、化肥碳密度和化肥碳成本高于普通农户，采用测土配方施肥技术的比例也高于普通农户；普通农户中，二兼户的化肥施用强度、化肥碳密度和化肥碳成本最高。.第三，根据农户水稻生产中使用化肥和能源引起的碳密度和碳成本，将农户的农业碳排放行为聚为低碳、中碳和高碳三类，采用Ordered probit模型实证分析了农户碳排放行为低、中、高碳程度的决定因素。结果表明，兼业将促使农户采取高碳生产行为，提高地块集中程度有利于农户采取低碳生产行为，扩大种植规模将提高农户碳密度。.第四，采用多元线性回归模型实证分析了农户化肥碳密度的决定因素。结果表明，较大规模农户的化肥碳密度明显高于较小规模和中等规模农户，以非农业为主的兼业会显著提高农户化肥碳密度，农户在土壤质量较高的土地上会显著减少化肥投入量。.第五，采用二元probit模型实证分析了农户施用有机肥决策的决定因素。结果表明，中等规模农户施用有机肥的比例高于较小规模和较大规模农户，养殖户和测土配方施肥技术认知度高的农户施用有机肥的可能性较高。