煤矿采空区失稳灾变链式控制基础理论研究

According to the key scientific problems of difficult prediction for caving time in coal mine goafs and hardly effectively control the mine earthquake and air blast disaster induced by large scaled goafs instability, the research on coal mine goafs instability chain-styled mechanism and the control theory of mitigating the disaster by cutting chain were carried out by introducing chain-styled theory of the disaster. Based on the analysis of more than 500 coal mine goafs investigation and several instability disaster accident cases in Midwest mining area, the distribution types and main influence factors of instability disaster were studied. The reflection rules of chain-styled carriers were obtained from the material, energy and information, while the evolution rules were found from the state, magnitude, time and space. The chain-styled features and effects were analyzed during the instability disaster evolution process of coal mine goafs. The chain-styled types under multi factors coupling of coal mine goafs were obtained. The basic theory models of instability disaster chain were constructed, and the chain stages of goafs instability process were divided and forecasted by introducing the function of instability time. The disaster chain theory models and numerical calculation models under multi factors coupling were established,then the goafs instability chain-styled mechanism were studied. The goafs instability moles of mitigating the disaster by cutting chain were constructed after analyzing the development characteristic and failure mode during every disaster evolution stage. The goafs instability control theory system of mitigating the disaster by cutting chain was put forward with the introduction of AHP and case analysis. The researches will provide theory base for coal mine goafs instability disaster prevention and control.

针对煤矿采空区失稳时间难以预测、大面积失稳诱发矿震或冲击气浪灾害难以有效控制这一关键科学问题，引入灾变链式理论，开展煤矿采空区失稳灾变链式控制基础理论研究。基于中西部矿区500余座煤矿采空区调查与多起失稳灾害事故案例分析，研究失稳灾害的分布类型，确定主要影响因素；从物质、能量、信息等表征形式研究链式载体的反映规律，从性态、量级、时空角度研究链式载体的演化规律，分析采空区失稳灾害演化过程中的链式特征和链式效应，获得多因素耦合作用下采空区失稳灾害链式类型；构建灾害链基本理论模型，引入失稳时间函数，进行采空区失稳灾害孕育过程链式阶段划分和失稳时间预测；构建多因素耦合作用下灾害链理论模型和数值计算模型，研究煤矿采空区失稳灾变链式机理；分析灾害演变各阶段发育特征和破坏模式，构建采空区失稳断链减灾模型并研究其控制理论；形成煤矿采空区失稳灾变链式控制基础理论体系，为煤矿采空区失稳灾害防治提供理论基础。

针对煤矿房柱式采空区失稳时间难以预测、大面积连片房柱式采空区失稳诱发矿震或冲击气浪灾害难以有效控制这一科学问题，引入灾变链式理论，开展煤矿采空区失稳灾变链式控制基础理论研究。基于榆神府矿区房柱式采空区失稳灾害事故中有矿震级别报道的14个典型案例分析，并重点以鄂尔多斯敬老院煤矿房柱式采空区失稳案例为工程背景，研究了地表建（构）筑物损坏、矿震灾害、生态环境破坏、井下顶板灾害和冲击气浪灾害等5种类型，提取并分析了采空区及煤柱尺寸与形态、采空区覆岩及围岩岩性、区域地质及构造分布、水文地质条件、采空区上下及周围煤层开采情况、采空区类型及遗留时间、静载和动载等8种主要影响因素；研究了采空区失稳灾害链式载体物质、能量、信息方面10个链式特征表现形式，以及性态、量级、时空角度13个链式载体演化规律，构建了多因素耦合作用下煤矿采空区失稳灾害链式效应结构、链式类型和数学理论模型；研究了顶板-煤柱采空区失稳链、构造影响下采空区失稳链、含水采空区失稳链、开采扰动影响下采空区失稳链、静载影响下采空区失稳链和动载影响下采空区失稳链6种基本失稳模式和采空区失稳灾害链基本理论模型，提出了动静载影响下煤矿采空区失稳灾害链式理论；引入失稳时间函数，对煤矿采空区失稳灾变链式阶段进行划分，提出了考虑蠕变作用下煤矿房柱式采空区失稳时间预测方法；模拟分析了地面车辆动载和静载作用对采空区失稳影响、开采扰动和静载作用对采空区失稳的影响，获得了多因素耦合作用下煤矿采空区失稳灾变链式机理；通过煤矿采空区失稳灾害事故演示模块的研发和演示环境的搭建，开展了煤矿采空区失稳灾害事故虚拟现实系统重构与测试；构建了煤矿采空区失稳断链减灾理论计算模型和数值模拟计算模型，形成并优化了煤矿采空区失稳断链减灾控制理论。研究成果对于榆神府矿区大面积房柱式采空区悬顶危险评估及防控具有积极的科学探索价值，也可为全国煤矿采空区失稳灾害防治提供参考和借鉴。