多零售商面临资金约束时供应商预付款融资策略研究

It is well known that inventory pooling results in a smaller optimal total stocking quantity, while maintaining the same probability of meeting demand that balances underage and overage costs, and leads to a reduction in the overall expected costs. However, the benefits of inventory pooling on relaxing funds shortage and reducing the financing cost are not well known. By introducing the advance payment financing into the single-supplier-multi-retailers problem, we can discuss the benefits of inventory pooling on reducing the financing cost. And this research can promote the supply chain financing theory with “1+N” model to deepen development. Based on the unified line of credit mode, this project plans to study the advance payment financing strategies of the supplier for the multiple budget-constrained retailers. This project tries to study the following problem based on game theory, non-linear program theory, and Mento Carlo simulation. In the case of complete guarantee or part guarantee, how should the supplier with/without budget constraint offer the wholesale contract, and allocate the line of credit and guarantee responsibility among the multiple retailers to maximize its own profit? Can the inventory pooling result in all of the benefits on reducing the bankrupt risk of multiple retailers, reducing the external advance payment financing cost, increasing the profit of the supplier and the supply chain? And how many benefits can it lead to? How will all of the factors , such as variability, dependence of demand, the number of the retailers, and the budget, impact the benefits of inventory pooling?

库存共享在减少需求波动性从而减少物流成本方面的优势，得到不少学者的认同。然而库存共享在缓解资金短缺、减少供应链资金流成本方面的优势，还有待挖掘。引入预付款融资到单供应商多零售商问题研究中，即可以展开库存共享在减少资金流成本方面的优势研究，又可以推动“1+N”模式下的供应链金融理论深化发展。基于此，本项目拟展开银行统一授信模式下，多零售商面临资金约束时供应商预付款融资策略研究。基于博弈论、非线性规划理论和蒙特卡洛模拟，本项目拟研究资金充足或不足的供应商，在承担完全担保和部分担保责任下，如何在多个零售商之间分配银行给予的信贷额度和担保责任，如何设定批发价格实现自身收益最大?当多个零售商合作管理库存时，市场需求的中和作用，在减少零售商的破产风险，减少供应链外部预付款融资成本，提高供应商收益和供应链收益方面所具有的优势有多大?市场需求波动性、关联性、零售商数量、资金量又将如何影响库存共享的优势？

供应链金融是解决中小企业融资问题的重要突破口，但在实际过程中，金融机构为了减少和避免风险，对供应链往往有很高的要求。为了剖析供应商在促进供应链金融方面的作用及影响因素，本项目综合运用博弈论、系统动力学、蒙特卡洛模拟等方法，构建了供应商在资金充足/不足和承担完全/部分担保责任下，面临多零售商集中/分散式库存管理系统时的预付款融资策略博弈模型，设计了蒙特卡洛模拟的实验过程，分析了银行的融资利率和融资额度决策、供应商的融资额度分配、批发价格和担保责任比例决策、多零售商的采购决策。通过对比分析，揭示了供应商的资金实力和所愿意承担的担保责任对供应链收益、银行面临的风险、银行的融资决策、供应商的收益等的影响。通过对比集中式和分散式库存管理系统下参与方的决策、风险和收益结果，揭示了集中式库存管理系统在减少供应链破产风险、减少供应链外部融资成本等方面的优势。并结合是否存在补货型零售商，进一步探讨了补货型零售商的存在对供应商预付款融资策略的影响。进一步基于系统动力学，探讨了供应链金融在再生资源回收行业、石油化工行业的PTA产业链和新能源汽车行业的融资指标设计、融资风险和作用。