冰雪冻灾干扰后亚热带森林生态系统恢复力的动态诊断

The resilience concept is being thought as an important way to deal with ecosystem management of extreme weather events disturbances. It will be very beneficial to the ecosystem sustainable development, if its resilience can be diagnosed dynamic and timely after disturbed by the extreme weather events. As the research object of subtropical forest ecosystems resilience disturbed by the 2008 snow frozen disaster, the system dynamics method is introduced to build the dynamic diagnosing model of the forest ecosystem resilience, considering various forest evosytem and social economy factors. Based on this dynamic diagnosing model, this study will simulate the interactions among the forest ecosystem resilience factors and their variations, and evaluate the temporal and spatial variations of forest ecosystem resilience and its influencing factors. It will also simulate the forest ecosystems resilience and the recovery time restoring to 2004 resilience levels under different investment scenarios. With comparison between natural recovery forest area in national natural protected area and the farmers managed forest areas, the human activities impacts on forest ecosystem resilience will be simulated and evaulated. The successful implementation of this project will show an important scientific value for ecosystem resilience dynamic diagnosing and quantitative evaluation, and also provide the policy basis and scientific reference for improving subtropical forest ecosystem resilience after disturbed by snow freeze disaster.

恢复力概念正被看作是生态系统应对极端天气事件干扰管理的重要途径。生态系统受到极端天气事件干扰后，若能及时诊断恢复力的动态变化、预警未来变化趋势，将非常有利于生态系统的可持续发展。本研究将引入恢复力理念评价2008年冰雪冻灾干扰后的亚热带森林生态系统变化，解析森林生态系统与社会经济管理等各方面因素的相互作用机理, 引入系统动力学方法，构建森林生态系统恢复力及各影响因素变化的动态诊断模型，评价2008年至今各年的恢复力时空动态变化，分析其成因并找出主要影响因素；模拟不同投入情景下,森林生态系统恢复力动态变化及其回复到干扰前2004年水平所需时间，并预测到2020年各年的恢复力；以农户经营林区和保护区内自然恢复林区为例，模拟研究人为作用对森林生态系统恢复力的影响。本项目成功实施为增强冰雪冻灾干扰后的亚热带森林生态系统恢复力的可持续性管理提供科学依据，对推动恢复力研究进展也具有创新性意义。

恢复力概念正被看作是生态系统应对极端天气事件干扰管理的重要途径。本研究引入了恢复力理念评价2008年冰雪冻灾干扰后的亚热带森林生态系统变化，基于多时相影像对2008年冰雪冻灾之后长江以南的南方丘陵山区的亚热带森林遭受冰雪冻灾干扰的范围进行遥感提取，评估了冰雪冻灾后森林植被受损程度，对森林植被恢复状况进行了动态诊断研究，解析了森林生态系统与社会经济管理等各方面因素的相互作用机理, 定量评价了系统各主要因素（如树种、坡度、坡向、海拔、群落结构、灯光指数、龄级等）对森林生态系统恢复力的影响作用，基于系统动力学方法构建了森林各影响因素变化的动态诊断模型，通过时间序列遥感数据诊断识别了森林生态系统遭受2008年冰雪冻灾后回复到干扰前水平所需时间的空间分异规律。本项目研究分别从亚热带区域尺度、典型县重点区域方面分别利用多分辨率遥感影像、大量地面实测调查样点、统计数据等多源数据资料进行了多时空研究，为增强冰雪冻灾干扰后的亚热带森林生态系统恢复力的可持续性管理提供了科学依据，对推动恢复力研究进展也具有创新性意义。