“营改增”背景下服务贸易出口退税政策设计与经济效应研究：基于CGE-MS模型的分析

The full implement of the substituting the value-added tax for business tax reform will include the export rebate of service trade. However the design of export rebate policy and the analysis of its economic effects for different industries are always very different ,due to the heterogeneity of service trade and the multi-objectives of the export rebate policy .This project combines a theoretical model and data from experiment of exports rebate policy for service trade to determine the available policy schemes, and analyze its macro and micro-economic effect with CGE-MS. The main steps are (1) the construction of a sector-linkage model and estimation of major economic parameter basing on the S-L Model and experiment data ,to determine the available policy schemes; (2) the construction of a CGE Model for the export rebate of service trade to simulate the macro economic effects of each policy scheme;(3) the constructor of CGE-MS Linking model of family behaviors to simulate the welfare economic effects of each policy scheme with the survey date of family; (4) the analysis and comparison of the experiment policy and the policy simulate basing on the “change point” model to provide policy advice for the export rebate policy of service trade of China.

“营改增”的全面实施将使服务贸易出口纳入退税范围，而由于服务贸易自身的异质性及多重政策目标的约束，难以设计辨识到行业或商品的服务贸易出口退税政策。本项目结合理论模型构建和试点政策的出口数据，提出可能的政策方案，并利用可计算一般均衡模型和微观模拟模型得出政策的宏观和微观效应。主要内容包括(1)基于“部门关联”理论构建服务贸易出口退税分析框架并结合试点数据估算重要的经济参数，从而得到可能的政策方案。(2)构建服务贸易出口退税的可计算一般均衡模型，模拟各方案的宏观经济效应。(3)构建家庭行为的微观模型并与CGE模型连接，结合家庭调查微观数据，模拟各方案的微观福利效应。(4)基于变点模型分析试点政策的效果并与政策模拟结果比较，得出我国服务贸易出口退税的政策建议。

全面营改增的实施将服务贸易出口纳入退税范围，该政策的实施已经显现一些积极效果，但由于政策本身及执行中的一些问题，政策效应有限，因此从理论和实证两个方向对服务贸易出口退税政策进行研究具有较强的理论和实践意义。本项目围绕营改增及服务贸易出口退税政策，分析了服务贸易出口退税政策的改革对出口的影响。构建了开放环境下的出口退税政策的可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型，模拟不同出口退税政策组合对宏观经济、产出及产业结构等的影响。并利用DID模型和变点模型实证分析了服务贸易出口退税政策对我国服务贸易出口的影响。最后，基于实证研究和模拟结果对我国“后营改增”时期完善服务贸易出口退税相关政策提出较为可行的政策建议。