营改增对制造业服务化升级的溢出效应及其传导机制研究

The evolution of industrial upgrading has always been the concern of theorists. Based on the Engel Effect and Baumol Effect, the changes in consumer's demand for goods and services, as well as the transfer of productivity among industries and enterprises, are the major factors during industrial upgrading. Perfect tax deduction chain and industry association are close to improve the industrial internal efficiency of input and output through the fair tax burden, indirectly improving balance relationships between industries, improving the efficiency of resource allocation, and further promoting industrial upgrading. The implementation of China's 2012-2016 years of replacing Business Tax with Value-added Tax policy provides a unique opportunity for the above theory. Based on tax economics and industrial economics, we construct the theoretical analysis framework of the replacing BT with VAT policy on manufacturing industry service upgrading. The aim of replacing BT with VAT policy is to improve the VAT chain and achieve a fair tax, which is also benefit to straighten input-output relations between the service industry and manufacturing industry, promote the division of labor and cooperation between industries, enhance the professional level, and eventually realize the path of China's manufacturing industry service upgrading. The research reveals the transmission mechanism of the VAT deduction chain and industrial linkages on the upgrading of manufacturing service, provides a theoretical basis and the incremental contribution of the replacing Business Tax with Value-added Tax effect on manufacturing service upgrading, and provides policy suggestions in practice to promote industrial upgrading.

产业升级的演变过程一直受到理论界关注。依据恩格尔效应和鲍莫尔效应，消费者对商品与服务的需求变化，以及生产率在产业、企业之间的传递是推进产业升级的主要因素。在此基础上，完善的税制抵扣链条、紧密的产业关联有助于通过公平税负改善产业内部的投入产出效率，提高资源在产业之间的分配效率，进一步推动产业升级。2012-2016年我国推行的营改增政策为上述理论提供了独特的研究契机。本课题基于产业经济学和税收经济学理论，构建营改增促进制造业服务化升级的研究框架，挖掘营改增完善增值税链条，公平税负，理顺服务业和制造业之间的投入产出关系，促进产业间的分工协作，提升专业化水平，最终实现我国制造业服务化升级的研究路径，揭示产业关联、增值税抵扣链条在营改增促进制造业服务化升级过程中的传导机制并进行实证检验。本课题为发现营改增促进制造业服务化升级的增量贡献提供理论依据和经验证据，为在实践中推动产业升级提供政策建议。

营改增通过完善增值税链条，实现产业链公平税负，使得市场供需关系通过资源的有效配置实现更高水平上的均衡，进而促使产业链内相关企业的资源配置效率和生产活动方式发生变化，促进产业之间的分工和协作，提升专业化水平，最终实现我国制造业服务化升级。但是由于服务业企业所在区域、行业税负及上下游企业可抵扣链条的成熟度、完整性等方面存在差异，我国营改增税改政策给微观企业带来的经济后果一直存在争议，本课题以上市公司为研究样本，研究营改增税改政策的微观经济后果，具体从企业全要素生产率、企业技术创新和企业避税等视角展开研究，挖掘营改增促进企业提高资源配置效率的重要过程，深化了宏观税制改革的微观经济效应方面的理论研究，为揭示营改增政策的积极效果提供经验证据。同时，本项目还基于宏观金融政策研究宏观金融发展对制造业企业资源配置活动的影响，从实体企业金融化与股价崩盘风险等视角展开研究，相关研究结论不仅在理论上丰富和拓展了营改增税改政策与制造业转型升级领域的研究，对实践中制造业企业优化资源配置与可持续发展具有重要的指导和借鉴意义。