非风险中心区个体风险知觉偏差的机制探索

In recent years, a series of field studies have found that people who live outside the center of risk area perceived higher risk than those who live in the center of risk area. Surprisingly, there is no extant research that empirically investigates the perception bias in those living outside the center of risk area. It should be noted that this kind of bias causes decision makers to spend a lot of times and money on risk communication and perception issues raised in the public living outside the center of risk area. By using research methods and approaches such as cognitive-behavioral experiments, virtual reality simulation and field studies, this project: (1) investigates the domain specific of the risk perception bias; (2) explores the possibility mechanism of this bias; and (3) tries to answer the scientific question of why "closer to danger, less frightened; away from danger, more frightened" .The present project is expected to provide converging evidence to shed light on the psychological mechanism for the risk perception bias in people who live outside the center of risk area, as well as provide theoretical and methodological support for risk communication and risk management.

近年一系列的现场研究发现，非风险中心区的个体反而比风险中心区的个体表现出更高的风险知觉水平，但目前的风险知觉研究却忽略了对非风险中心区个体风险知觉偏差的关注。这种知觉偏差引发的民众焦虑情绪与恐慌行为，有时需要政府机构花费更多的时间与经费用于应对非风险中心区民众未曾面临的风险。本项目拟综合运用认知行为实验、虚拟现实模拟与现场研究的方法和技术：(1) 考察非风险中心区个体风险知觉偏差的领域特异性；(2) 探索预期体验假说与认知失调理论在解释风险知觉偏差中的内在机制；(3) 进一步探讨风险知觉偏差作用机制的影响因素，以降低非风险中心区个体风险知觉偏差。从而为回答"民众为何'危而不惧，惧而不危'"提供实证研究的证据，为制定更合理的风险沟通与风险管理政策提供心理学理论基础和方法依据。

按照计划，国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目“非风险中心区个体风险知觉偏差的机制探索”（71201163，2013～2015）主要围绕非风险中心区个体风险知觉偏差的内在机制这一核心问题，综合运用认知行为实验、现场研究与大数据挖掘等方法和技术，考察非风险中心区个体风险知觉偏差的领域特异性，探索其内在机制，并进一步探讨该机制的影响因素，从本质上加深对人们面对风险时“危而不惧，惧而不危”现象的理解，并为制定更合理的风险沟通与风险管理政策提供心理学理论基础和方法依据。其中，研究一探讨了非风险中心区个体风险知觉偏差是否在各类风险中具有普遍性；研究二分别探索获益感知与预期体验的内在作用机制，以期能为非风险中心区个体风险知觉偏差提供相应解释。研究三则分析了非风险中心区个体风险知觉的影响因素及其作用机制，进一步探讨降低风险知觉偏差的可能途径。在本项目执行期间，项目负责人以第一作者和通讯作者的身份共发表学术论文4篇，其中英文论文3篇（SSCI Q1档论文2篇，Q2档论文1篇），中文论文1篇；参加国际学术会议，并做口头报告3人次，参加国内学术会议并作口头报告1人次。