中国上市公司非理性投资行为研究

By using game theory and principal-agency theory, this project team establish financing and investment behavior game model for enterprises under dissymmetric information conditions. It exposes the mechanism that leads the institutions, the shareholders and the enterprises in capital markets not to be able to cooperate effectively, and then it profoundly studies the necessary conditions and decisive factors that make the cooperation successful. After that, by combining the realistic situation of the listed firms in China, this team divides the irrational investment behavior into three types: overestimating oneself, doing as one pleases, allowing oneself to be trampled upon. Yet no matter whatever the types are, the cause lies in the imperfect corporate governance mechanism. Therefore this team puts forward the innovation measures of maximizing the ownership structure of the listed firms, reestablishing the boards of directors and implementing institutionalization governance. Finally, by borrowing the sustainable growth model by American senior financial experts Robert Higgins and James Van Herne, and by using mathematical statistical methods, this team testifies the sustainable growth situation in each industry of the listed firms of China between years 1993-2000. The empirical study results show that no industry realizes sustainable growth except the electronic and electric machines. Besides this, this team also finds that there exits under-investment in light industry, agriculture, and over-investment in other industries.

本项目采用规范研究和实证研究相结合的分析方法，定性和定量地研究现代公司治理结构下.的企业投资行为优化理论和选择机制，其研究角度界定为在转型经济体制下，我国现代公司.投资行为机制的建立，以克服我国企业投资决策严重地依赖于管理者的个人行为和经验，促.进股东财富的保值、增值及上市公司的可持续发展，从而具有重要的学术价值和现实意义。..