适应风电相关随机特性的电-热耦合系统随机-鲁棒混合追踪调度方法研究

The inflexibility of heating-supply units restricts the accommodating of wind power generation in the Northern China. The operating of electric power and the heating systems need coordinating to further exploit the regulation flexibility of heating-supply generation units. This project investigates the optimal dispatch methodology of combined electric power and heating system using hybrid stochastic and robust optimization. To handle the spatio-temporal correlations of wind power, this project studies the methods for building up and dimensionally reducing the uncertainty sets of wind power generation, aiming at reducing the conservativeness of dispatch strategies. The hybrid stochastic and robust dispatch of combined electric and power systems that accounts for uncertainties of both wind power and heating network parameters will be investigated in terms of modeling and solution approach. The proposed dispatch method is intended to release the flexibility of both the electric power and heating networks for accommodating wind power generation. To facilitate the closed loop coordinated operation of combined electricity-heat systems, the online tracking dispatch method for combined electricity-heating systems is also developed based on multi-parametric programming, making it possible to track the optimal dispatch strategy in an online fashion without solving the dispatch model repeatedly. The effort of this project would contribute to the theory and methodology of coordinating operation of combined electric power and heating systems, which would supports promoting wind power integration in the Northern China.

供热机组的灵活性不足是我国“三北”地区弃风限电的主要原因之一。电力系统与城市供热系统的协调运行能够挖掘城市供热系统在释放供热灵活性、促进风电消纳方面的潜力。本项目拟开展适应风电相关随机特性的电-热耦合系统随机-鲁棒混合追踪调度方法研究。研究基于相关性特征空间变换的风电出力不确定集合构建与降维方法，通过利用风电的时空相关性降低调度策略的保守性；研究计及风电出力与供热管网参数不确定性的电-热耦合系统调度模型与算法，通过随机-鲁棒混合优化进一步降低调度策略的保守性，兼顾电-热耦合系统协调运行的安全性与经济性；为了实现电-热耦合系统的闭环运行，研究基于多参数规划的电-热耦合系统在线追踪调度方法，实现在避免反复求解调度模型的情况下实时地获取严格的最优调度策略。本项目将完善电-热耦合系统协调运行理论与方法，为解决“三北”地区的风电消纳问题提供方法指导。

供热机组的灵活性不足是我国“三北”地区弃风限电的主要原因之一。电力系统与城市供热系统的协调运行能够挖掘城市供热系统在释放供热灵活性、促进风电消纳方面的潜力。本项目开展适应风电相关随机特性的电-热耦合系统随机-鲁棒混合追踪调度方法研究。本项目研究：（1）基于相关性特征空间变换的风电出力不确定集合构建与降维方法，提出了基于主成分分析的可再生能源出力不确定集合与降维方法。在不确定集合的结构中显式考虑了不确定参数的时空相关性，降低模型的保守性。采用主成分分析法解决了计及相关性的不确定参数建模问题，可用于一般鲁棒优化的参数不确定性建模。（2）研究计及风电出力与供热管网参数不确定性的电-热耦合系统调度模型与算法，提出了适应供热管网参数不确定性的电-热耦合系统鲁棒调度方法。通过混合整数等价变换与对偶转换技术，解决了含不确定参数双线性项的两阶段鲁棒优化的可计算性问题，方法具有普适性。（3）为了实现电-热耦合系统的闭环运行，研究基于多参数规划的电-热耦合系统在线追踪调度方法，实现在避免反复求解调度模型的情况下实时地获取严格的最优调度策略。提出了基于多参数规划的电-热耦合系统在线滚动鲁棒调度方法。解决了鲁棒优化最恶劣场景对不确定参数的参数化表达与实时追踪问题，为两阶段鲁棒优化的在线应用提供了可行的思路。本项目完善了电-热耦合系统协调运行理论与方法，为解决“三北”地区的风电消纳问题提供方法指导。