基于多源空间数据的中国城镇建设用地综合碳效应空间差异及驱动因素研究

The utilization and expansion of urban construction land not only carry and pull a large amount of anthropogenic carbon emissions, but also affect the carbon reserves of the terrestrial ecosystem. In the context of China’s rapid urbanization, the carbon effects from the utilization and expansion of urban construction land have attracted wide attention. According to this background, this study intends to develop as follows: After the improvement of the method to extract urban construction land from night light data, the expansion status of urban construction land in China will be analyzed from various spatial scales. After the estimation of net ecosystem productivity, ecological carbon effects of urban construction land during its utilization and expansion will be studied. On the other hand, the anthropogenic carbon effects of urban construction land will be estimated from three aspects, i.e., the energy consumption, the industrial production process and the waste disposal. Based on data such as night light data, the spatialization of anthropogenic carbon effects will be realized. With the results of ecological and anthropogenic carbon effects, the distribution maps of comprehensive carbon effect intensities for urban construction land in China will be produced year by year, and the spatial-temporal variations of comprehensive carbon effects will be analyzed from multiple scale, including the national scale, both sides of the Hu Huanyong line, the six regions and the provincial scale. Based on the spatial econometric model, the driving factors of comprehensive carbon effects from urban construction land will be studied. According to the results, countermeasures, suggestions and measures for low cost and high efficiency carbon emission reduction will be explored, in order to help provide the theoretical bases and practical guidelines for the country to realize the sustainable new-type urbanization.

城镇建设用地的利用和扩张不仅承载和拉动着大量的人为碳排放，而且也对陆地生态系统碳储量造成影响。在中国快速城镇化的背景下，城镇建设用地利用和扩张的碳效应影响已引起广泛关注。本研究拟改进基于夜间灯光数据提取城镇建设用地的方法，从多个空间尺度分析中国城镇建设用地的扩张变化情况；借助净生态系统生产力的估算结果，研究城镇建设用地利用和扩张的生态碳效应；从能源消费、工业生产过程和废弃物排放三个方面估算城镇建设用地的人为碳效应，并借助夜间灯光数据等对其进行空间化；综合生态碳效应和人为碳效应的研究结果，逐年生成中国城镇建设用地的综合碳效应强度分布图，并从全国、胡焕庸线两侧、六大区域和各省级区域多个尺度分析城镇建设用地综合碳效应的时空变化特征；基于空间计量模型研究城镇建设用地综合碳效应的驱动因素；根据研究结果探索低代价高效率的碳减排对策、建议和措施，为国家推进可持续的新型城镇化提供理论依据和实践指导。

作为快速工业化和城镇化的碳排放大国，中国面临着巨大的碳减排压力。城镇建设用地在利用和扩张过程中承载和拉动着大量的碳排放，是碳减排工作的首要区域。本项目基于多源空间数据，在改进城镇建设用地提取方法的基础上，提取了2000-2019年中国的城镇建设用地，并分析了其扩张变化动态，接着从空间上估算和分析了城镇建设用地生态和人为综合碳效应，并对其驱动因素进行了研究。主要研究结论有：①2000-2019年中国城镇建设用地扩张迅速，但增长速度总体呈减缓趋势。胡焕庸线两侧城镇建设用地面积差异呈减小趋势。六大区域城镇建设用地扩张面积和速度差异明显。各省级区域城镇建设用地变化趋势各异，包括先减缓再增速趋势、持续减缓趋势和明显增速趋势。②2000-2019年中国城镇建设用地综合碳效应总量和强度均快速增长，碳效应强度最高值较为集中地分布在三大城市群区域。胡焕庸线东侧综合碳效应的增长差额明显高于西侧，但增长幅度低于西侧。六大区域按碳效应数值高低排序依次为华东、中南、华北、东北、西南和西北。③相邻区域能够对本区域综合碳效应数值造成影响。经济规模、城镇居民人均可支配收入、二产比重和城镇化率的提高均在一定程度上促进了城镇建设用地综合碳效应的增长。项目的研究成果能够为我国从宏观角度科学地实现碳排放控制，缓解碳减排工作压力、实现可持续城镇化和碳汇保护提供参考。