农地确权对农户生产行为的影响机理与对策研究

Farmland ownership confirmation is an important decision made by the central government from an overall perspective on deepening the rural reform, and a significant groundwork for the realization of agricultural modernization and long-term stability of the rural society. The confirmation of farmland ownership gradually carried out on a national scale at present is actually an excellent natural and historical experiment, which provides a rare opportunity to study the influence of land ownership system reform on farmers’ production behavior. In this study, we will build a model of farmers’ response to farmland ownership confirmation in production behavior by summing up the general characteristics of farmland ownership confirmation including its progress and influence on farmers’ production behavior based on the data from national fixed rural observation points offered by the Ministry of Agriculture, study the influence of farmland ownership confirmation on farmers’ production behavior using panel data discrete choice model, analyze the net effect of farmland ownership confirmation as an exogenous institutional arrangement on land transfer, labor transfer and productive investment, and objectively evaluate the effectiveness of farmland ownership confirmation based on case study and system analysis, to provide decision-making reference for the perfection of this significant policy.

农地确权是中央从深化农村改革全局出发作出的一项重大决策，是关系到农业现代化实现和农村社会长期稳定的一项重大基础性工作。当前，农地确权在全国范围内逐步推进，为研究土地产权制度改革对农户生产行为的影响，提供了一个很好的自然历史实验。本课题将以农业部全国农村固定观察点的农户调查为数据支撑，在归纳农地确权进展及其对农户生产行为影响的总体特征的基础上，构建一个基于农地确权的农户生产行为响应模型，运用面板数据离散选择模型研究农地确权对农户生产行为的影响，运用倍分法分析农地确权这项外生性制度安排对农户土地流转、劳动力转移与生产性投资的净效应，并结合案例与制度分析对农地确权的效果进行客观评价，为完善这项重大政策提供决策参考。

本课题以调查数据为支撑，从农地确权对农地产出的影响、农地确权对农机社会化服务的影响、农地确权对土地退出的影响三方面来分析农地确权对农户生产行为的影响，并结合案例与制度分析对农地确权成果应用及农村产权制度进行分析评价，为完善这项重大政策提供决策参考。.主要内容及成果有：一是将农地细碎化纳入分析框架，运用工具变量法和中介效应模型对农地确权与农地产出的内在机理进行实证分析。研究发现：①农地确权对农地产出具有显著正向影响，农地确权能够有效提高农地产出；②农地确权可以通过减少农地块数，缓解农地细碎化程度来提高农地产出；③农地确权能有效提高农户平均地块和最大地块的面积，从而提高农地产出。二是以粮食作物为例，从服务规模与服务选择两个维度分析农地确权对农机社会化服务的影响。研究发现：①农地确权能够提升农机社会化服务规模，农户在农地确权后接受农机社会化服务的总面积得到显著提升；②农地确权未能对农机社会化服务选择产生显著影响，农户在农地确权后并未对农机社会化服务表现出显著的选择转换偏向。三是利用Probit模型分析了农地确权对农户承包地退出意愿的影响。研究发现，①农地确权促进了经营权退出，但却抑制了承包权退出；②经营权退出在农地确权对农户承包权退出意愿的影响中具有遮掩效应；③确权会强化农民的承包地转让意愿，但农村承包地仍然具有很强的乡土文化传承功能。四是农村产权制度改革主要通过重构集体所有制下的产权体系，从而形成一种更有效率的制度安排。农村产权制度改革有其特定的制度特性及历史背景，其本质是在不同发展阶段下的中国特色社会主义实现路径选择。五是要注意农地确权政策效应的滞后性，系统开展农地确权政策的绩效评估，创新农地确权成果应用形式，强化确权成果应用的制度支撑。