可再生能源系统风险评估方法及其应用研究

With an extraordinary decade for renewable energy development in China, the integrated risk assessment models for renewable energy systems become the key to sustainable development of this industry. However, the mechanism and evaluation system for risk assessment is not clear and the research field lacks the systematic theory and practice to improve our understanding. With the entry points from the nature and social aspects of renewable energy deployment and the deep analysis on the constraint from the institution mechanism, this project will carry out systematic research in three stages successively: (1) Establish regional renewable energy vulnerability assessment model to analysis climate change impacts, synthetically measure future climate change risks on renewable energy utilization by integrating exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity; (2) Build risk assessment of renewable portfolio standards policy implementation for improvements of current policy support framework, including quota allocation, renewable electricity dispatching, interest group decision and participation motivation, coordination mechanism etc.; (3) Construct renewable energy development perception risk aversion model by assessing the social benefits of renewable energy use where is help to form the consensus on the priority of renewable energy development. The completion of this project has the important theoretical and practical significance for sustainable development of renewable energy industry and the feasible remission solutions on renewable electricity abandoning, and offers scientific evidences on the improvements of industrial development policy system and the actions for coping with climate change.

随着可再生能源大规模开发利用，可再生能源系统风险综合评估对产业发展至关重要，然而其风险机理与评估体系尚不清晰，缺乏系统性研究的理论与实践。本项目将以可再生能源利用的自然属性和社会属性为切入点，深入剖析其规模化利用面临的体制机制制约，分三个阶段依次开展系统研究：（1）建立区域可再生能源系统脆弱性评估模型，从暴露度、敏感度和适应能力三个方面来综合度量气候变化对可再生能源系统的风险；（2）构建可再生能源配额制政策实施风险评估模型，涵盖配额分配、电力调度、利益主体博弈、机制协调等方面，完善可再生能源政策支持体系；（3）通过评估可再生能源发展效益构建可再生能源认知风险规避模型，结合支付意愿调研分析，识别可再生能源潜在认知风险。项目的完成不仅对推进可再生能源产业持续健康发展、切实缓解弃水弃风弃光问题具有重要的理论意义与实际价值，也为完善促进可再生能源产业发展政策体系、应对气候变化工作提供科学依据。

可再生能源大规模开发利用面临的自然和社会风险与日俱增，深入分析可再生能源系统风险并开展综合评估对可再生能源产业可持续发展具有重要意义。本项目从可再生能源利用的自然属性和社会属性为切入点，针对可再生能源系统风险机理与评估问题开展研究，综合运用管理科学、经济学、系统科学理论与方法模型系统性研究可再生能源规模化利用面临的体制机制、气候因素、社会认知制约，在方法和应用方面都取得了一定的成果。第一，建立了区域可再生能源系统脆弱性评估模型，从暴露度、敏感度和适应能力三个方面构建脆弱性范围图，综合度量气候变化对可再生能源系统的风险，识别了重点区域可再生能源发展面临的气候风险；第二，构建了可再生能源配额制政策实施框架与政策风险评估模型，明确可再生能源政策体系中配额分配、电力调度、利益主体博弈、机制协调等实施路径；第三，建立了可再生能源发展效益综合评估模型，量化了可再生能源发展在缓解能源贫困和保障能源安全中的贡献，为规避可再生能源潜在认知风险提供了有力支撑。研究成果丰富了可再生能源与气候变化之间复杂性研究的学术前沿，进一步完善了可再生能源产业发展政策体系和社会认知的普及，对推进可再生能源产业持续健康发展、促进高比例可再生能源利用和完善可再生能源产业发展政策具有重要的理论意义与实际价值。