市场机制下多能微网群的分层建模与博弈优化研究

The in-depth promotion of energy market reform may break down the trading barriers inside and outside the integrated energy network, and promote the formation and development of multi-integrated energy networks based on the trans-network integration of multiple energies. However, considering its main features including multi-level interaction, multi-benefit delivery and cross-temporal interconnection, to promote the application of multi-integrated energy networks, rational business model design and effective management optimization is of vital importance. Under this background, based on the interactive cooperation and benefit sharing inside and outside the network, by examining the dynamic evolution mechanism of the procedure including production, supply and consumption for multiple energies, as well as the coupling mechanism of energy flow, service flow and value flow among multiple agents, the normalized business mode is established. Following which, based on the principle of "Regional autonomy and overall coordination", a spatio-temporal multiscale modeling and analytical framework is developed, while considering multi-energy complementarity, heteroid energy coupling and cross-net interconnection. In addition, by integrating game theory and mathematical programming theory, a collaborative approach for market decision making and physical system optimization is proposed. As the final result, this project may establish the theoretical foundation for the rational decision-making of the multi-integrated energy network under the background of market reform, so as to promote the strategic innovation of unban energy system based on integrated energy systems.

能源市场化改革的深入推进将有效破除多能微网在网内、网外的交易壁垒，从而推动基于多元能源跨网融通的多能微网群的形成与发展。针对多能微网群多层级互动、多利益交割、跨时空互联等关键特性，为促进其推广应用，合理有效的商业模式设计与管理决策优化极具挑战。针对此问题，本项目以多能微网群网内网外的互联互动与利益共享为立足点，通过深度解析多元能源“产供消”诸环节的动态演化机理，以及多元主体间能源流、服务流和价值流的互动耦合机制，构建基于层次型能源融通和交易架构的规范化商业模式。在此基础上，以“区域自治、全局协调”为基本原则，从多元能源互补、异质能流耦合、跨网互联共融三个维度确立其时空多尺度集成建模与解析框架。同时，耦合应用博弈论和数学规划理论，提出多能微网群市场决策与物理优化的协同解决方法。本项目研究成果将为能源市场化改革背景下多能微网群的优化决策提供理论分析框架，从而推动基于多能微网的城市能源战略革新。

能源互联网是当前全球能源发展的重要趋势，也是我国中长期能源发展的战略重点。作为能源互联网的具象化体现，考虑多能耦合互补、区域间能源融通的多能微网群正快速发展。在多能微网群中，每个单元系统都是具备能源“产、输、用”一体化的自平衡体；同时，借助物理-信息-经济耦合，多个自平衡体自主决策扩展并与其它自平衡体进行物理网络互联和能源市场交易，形成广域范围内新的自平衡体。此外，这种多区域间“相互支撑、互为备用”新自平衡体又可自适应生长、不断扩张，最终全面提升城市能源系统的柔韧性、灵活性和经济性。本项目针对我国城市区域当前普遍存在的能源消费峰谷差大、供需匹配性差、可再生能源消纳比例低等共性问题，通过市场机制下多能微网利益相关者识别与多能微网群商业模式设计、多层次多能微网群模型研究、物理和市场决策协同优化运行等关键技术的研究与应用，形成多能微网群系统相关核心技术。项目首先结合利益相关者理论、效益货币化方法，针对多能微网群系统多种利益相关者识别及商业模式，提出了协同效益分配机制及商业可行性的分析方法；同时，在考虑多能微网群网内网外系统特性基础上，从多元能源互补、异质能流耦合、跨网互联共融三个维度，提出了主网-网群多能流潮流建模和计算方法。在需求侧分析的基础上，耦合应用数学规划理论、博弈论等理论方法，一方面，从整体效率性角度提出了区域多能微网系统的一体化协同优化设计方法；另一方面，从单体公平性角度提出了多能微网集群系统中多利益主体间的利益协调与分配机制，构成市场决策与物理优化的协同解决方法。本项目研究成果为我国战略性新兴能源业态的健康发展和顺利推进提供了坚实的理论基础。