微能源网群多能分层互补及协同递进优化模型研究

In recent years, micro energy gird (MEG) has been widely concerned and developed since its flexible operation, safe and efficient, clean and low carbon, which brings difficulties such as weak persistence, low coverage, and poor anti-interference ability for single MEG supplying energy. How to connect multiple adjacent MEGs into a cluster system and develop the optimal coordinating mutual aid of group-level MEGs is a key issue for its sustainable development. The research aims at the optimal collaborative operation of the group-level MEGs, on the basis of layer-by-layer revealing the energy characteristics of“source→network→group” along the energy transfer chain, the hierarchical multi-energy complementary coupling effect measurement model is constructed, and the multi-energy layered collaborative complementary mode is established. Secondly, based on the multi-agent model, the interaction behaviors of energy subjects in different levels are described, and the hierarchical progressive, step-by-step optimization and overall optimal multi-energy complementary collaborative progressive three-level optimization model are proposed to realize multi-level energy collaborative decision method within the group. Thirdly, using the portfolio theory, multi-type energy collaborative optimization model for MEGs responding to the upper-level energy network as a flexible resource is constructed, and the collaborative allocation strategy of multiple epitaxial response capabilities such as electricity, heat, cold and gas is established. In summary, the research and proposes a novel mechanism method for the multi-energy collaborative optimization of the group-level MEGs, which could provide decision support and policy suggestion for the sustainable development of MEGs.

近年来，微能源网凭其运行灵活、安全高效、清洁低碳等特性，得到广泛关注和发展。然而，网内分布式能源间歇性且分布分散特性，给单一微能源网供能带来弱持续性、低覆盖度、差抗扰能力等难题。如何将多个相邻微能源网连接为群集系统，开展群能量协调互济是其生存和发展的关键问题。本项目以微能源网群最优协同为目标，通过逐层级揭示“源→网→群”能量特性，构建多能分层互补耦合效果测度模型，确立群最优多能分层协同互补模式；然后，利用多代理模型刻画不同层级能量主体的交互特征，提出分级递进、逐级优化和整体最优的群内多能协同递进三级优化模型，确立群多级能量协同决策方法；最后，基于投资组合理论，构建微能源网群作为灵活性资源响应上级能网多类型能量协同优化模型，确立电、热、冷、气等群多维外延响应能力协同分配策略。综上，本项目从群协同这一新视角构造上述多能协同优化模型，在理论、政策和实践上为微能源网持续发展提供决策支撑和策略建议。

2022年10月，习总书记在党的二十大报告中提出“积极稳妥推进碳达峰碳中和，加快规划建设新型能源体系”，推进电、气、热、冷等不同类型能源间的耦合互动和综合利用对于构建新型能源体系至关重要。本项目以微能源网为对象，开展微能源网群多能分层互补与递进协同优化模型研究、实现微能源网“源一网一群”逐层级多能分层互补利用、拓展和深化微能源网群协同运行的有关模型和方法等相关研究。首先，通过沿微能源网群能量传递链，逐环节识别和分析微能源网群中不确定性因素及其相互作用关系，设计沿“网-源-储-荷”逐环节多能互补测度模型，为确立群最优的多能分层互补模式及协同优化运行策略提供决策基础。其次，系统分析微能源网群不同层级能量主体的运营特性，确立源、网、群等不同层级多能协同优化目标，构造源级能量平衡、网级能量交互、群级能量协调的逐层级多能互补协同递进优化模型。最后，基于微能源网群内多能分层协同优化结果，量化分析兼顾能量耦合主体运行状态的多维外延响应能力，提出外延响应能力参与上级能网多类型能量服务协同分配优化模型，为开展微能源网群响应上级能网能量协同优化提供决策依据。研究结果表明:(1)提出的考虑价格型需求响应和激励型需求响应的微能源网结构，能实现能量供给侧和需求侧的联动优化效果，实现微能源网与上级能源网络的灵活互动。(2)提出的风险规避调度模型可以表示不确定性变量的波动影响，合理控制不确定性风险，为不同风险态度的决策者提供决策工具。(3)提出的考虑柔性边界条件的容量配置优化模型，能利用不同微能源网群间的互补特性，减少上层电网的电力、供热和制冷备用容量，并延迟新增容量投资成本。主要研究成果包括： (1)在国内外学术期刊共发表了21篇学术论文； (2)完成著作2部；(3)指导了3名博士研究生及7名硕士研究生开展了学位论文研究，其中2名博士研究生和1名硕士研究生已顺利完成学业。