基于元胞自动机的城市洪水-人群疏散耦合建模方法

This project adopts cellular automata for the coupled modeling and analysis of complex geographic process containing human (crowd evacuation) and natural (flood routine) geographic elements. Firstly, the force mechanism that urban flood exerts on crowd evacuation is researched; then, the spatial structure and transition rules of cellular automata model are constructed and defined, which can support the coupling of urban flood routine and crowd evacuation; finally, the scale sensitivity and parameter sensitivity are analyzed based on the urban flood- crowd evacuation coupled cellular automata model. The dam-break flood routine and crowd evacuation in Jiangshan City of Zhejiang Province is taken as case study in the project, to carry out the modeling and analysis of urban flood- crowd evacuation coupled cellular automata. The project is expected to promote the modeling theories and simulation methods for complex geographical phenomena, which includes human and natural geographic elements. It is also expected to provide scientific basis for urban flood control planning, crowd evacuation planning, and rescue methods.

本项目采用元胞自动机来对包含人文（人群疏散）和自然（洪水演进）地理要素的复杂地理过程进行耦合建模与分析。通过研究城市洪水对人群疏散的作用机理，构建支持城市洪水耦合人群疏散全要素建模的元胞空间结构，完成城市洪水耦合人群疏散元胞自动机模拟算法，并在此基础上对城市洪水耦合人群疏散模型的尺度和参数敏感性进行分析。项目以浙江省江山市溃坝洪水演进及人群疏散为模拟情景和实验案例，开展基于元胞自动机的城市洪水-人群疏散耦合建模与分析。 本项目的研究有望促进元胞自动机对包括人文和自然地理要素的复杂地理现象进行建模与模拟的理论方法，不仅可以服务于城市防洪减灾的规划，也可以为城市突发洪水时的人员疏散预案和救援措施提供科学依据。

本项目研究洪水演进致灾因子对人群的移动影响的抽象建模与表达方法，制定了基于多尺度编码的洪水演进和人群疏散耦合建模的元胞空间结构，分析了基于势能场和多智能体的洪水灾害场景要素建模和人群疏散模拟方法，从而构建了洪水演进-人群疏散洪水耦合人群疏散的动力学模型。形成了洪水演进-人群疏散模拟数据预处理工具集和耦合模拟可视化平台，选取案例区域开展了不同时空尺度和元胞结构的模型对比实验，并开展了基于虚拟现实场景下真实实验者参与的疏散实验，验证了耦合模拟模型的精度。本项目提出的洪水演进-人群疏散模拟模型，不仅可以为城市洪水灾害应急决策提供辅助，也可以提供重要水库溃决及人群疏散模拟分析模型，为水库人防安全提供决策辅助分析手段。本项目共发表论文13篇，其中SCI论文8篇，EI检索论文3篇，国内核心检索论文2篇。申请专利3项，软件著作权登记2项。