基于大数据风险评估的城市消防站布局优化方法研究

Fire station layout optimization has always been an important part of urban and rural planning, which are concerned by many domestic and foreign scholars, especially in research on algorithms, models and etc. However, because the fire station layout usually does not match the urban development, most cities cannot satisfy the requirement of the so-called “5 min” fire protection. Moreover, lacking of coverage, covering redundancy and other waste of resource are common phenomenon. In addition, the urban fire risks and other factor are merely considered in the existing fire station layout, and layout planning seems more than rigidity and lacks of elasticity...Based on these problems, Urban Fire Station Layout Optimization as the main issue is designed to optimize the process of spatial layout of urban fire station by building a risk assessment based on the Big Data. First, the thesis investigates the methods based on the accessibility analysis on the division of the responsibility area fire station and establishes evaluation system of the fire station covering redundancy. Secondly, Network Data and Mobile Data Terminal as factors in the introduction of urban fire risk evaluation system build GIS-MCE fire risk assessment. Then, based on the elastic thinking, the risk of fire coverage, fire response time and a plurality of (at least two) fire station are viewed as a linkage layout constraints to achieve the urban fire station scientific layout optimization, to maximize the services potential of the fire station and to satisfy the security needs of the residents. Finally, Fuzhou and Wuhan are selected as a case verification analysis.

消防站的布局优化一直以来都是城乡规划的重要内容，备受国内外学者关注，在算法、模型等方面开展了较多的研究。然而，消防站的布局往往与城市发展不匹配，大多数城市都达不到所谓的“5 min”消防要求，覆盖缺失、覆盖冗余等“资源浪费”的现象屡见不鲜。而且，现有的消防站布局往往较少考虑到城市火灾风险等诸多因素，布局规划显得刚性有余而弹性不足。.基于此，本项目以“城市消防站的布局优化”为主要问题展开研究，旨在通过构建一套基于大数据风险评估的城市消防站空间布局优化方法流程。首先，探讨基于可达性分析的消防站责任区划分的方法，并建立消防站覆盖冗余的评价指标体系；其次，将“网络数据”、“移动终端数据”作为影响因子，引入城市火灾风险评价指标体系中，构建基于GIS-MCE火灾风险评估方法；然后，基于弹性思维，将火灾风险覆盖、消防响应时间、多个（至少2个）消防站联动布局作为约束条件，从而实现城市消防站布局的科学优化，

消防站的布局优化一直以来都是城乡规划的重要内容，备受国内外学者关注。目前，我国消防站的规划布局主要采用画图法、网格法等进行，更多考虑的是消防站的最大覆盖，往往难以达到“5 min”消防应急响应要求，覆盖缺失、覆盖冗余等“资源浪费”的现象屡见不鲜。而且，消防站的布局规划较少考虑到城市火灾风险的空间分布特征，显得刚性有余而弹性不足。基于以上背景，本项目以“城市消防站的布局优化”为主要问题展开研究，旨在构建一套基于大数据风险评估的城市消防站空间布局优化方法流程。首先，基于时空可达性分析，探讨了消防站责任区划分的方法，并建立消防站覆盖冗余的评价指标体系；其次，将“网络数据”、“移动终端数据”作为影响因子引入评价指标体系，在常规的基础地理空间信息和社会经济统计信息的基础上，构建基于GIS-MCE火灾风险评估方法；然后，基于弹性思维，将火灾风险等级较高、防灾能力薄弱的区域作为重要的城市防灾需求点，以消防站点到需求点的应急响应时间为2分钟、消防站点到多个需求点的平均路径最短，从而实现城市消防站布局的优化。