中国关键基础设施系统生态演化机理与韧性提升策略

China’s critical infrastructure system’s function tends to be fragmented. It is difficult to meet the needs of security development of the economy, society and ecology, and it is even more difficult to effectively respond to internal failures, natural disasters, or deliberate attacks. Thus the ecological optimization and resilience promotion of critical infrastructure system have become a major practical issue that needs urgent solution. This project intends to follow the “system of systems” idea, comprehensively use multidisciplinary approaches, such as management, complex system, evolutionary game, and system simulation, to construct an ecological analysis framework of critical infrastructure system, and analyze the structure and operation mechanism of critical infrastructure system. The infrastructure system evolution mechanism is analyzed through the evolution Logistic model of system and populations, and the evolutionary game model of governance subjects. The interaction mechanism between critical infrastructure system and complex economic-social-environmental system is clarified, the efficiency loss of critical infrastructure system under destructive events is measured, and an evaluation system of the resilience of critical infrastructure system is established. The governance system of China’s critical infrastructure system ecology is optimized, and the strategy for enhancing the resilience of critical infrastructure system is proposed. This research provides new ideas and methods for the management of critical infrastructure planning, construction, operation, maintenance, and provides decision support for national critical infrastructure evaluation and protection policy formulation, helping to enhance China’s economic and society sustainable development capabilities.

中国关键基础设施系统功能供给趋于碎片化，难以满足经济社会生态安全的发展需求，更无法有效应对内部失效、自然灾害或蓄意攻击，关键基础设施系统生态优化与韧性提升成为亟待解决的重大现实问题。本项目拟秉承“系统之系统”思想，综合运用管理学、复杂系统、演化博弈、系统仿真等理论方法，构建关键基础设施系统生态分析框架，深入分析关键基础设施系统生态的结构和运行机制；构建关键基础设施系统（种群）演化Logistic模型和演化博弈模型，解析系统演化机理；厘清关键基础设施系统与经济—社会—环境复杂系统的交互作用机制，度量破坏性事件下关键基础设施系统效能损失，建立关键基础设施系统韧性评价体系；优化中国关键基础设施系统生态治理体系，提出关键基础设施系统韧性提升策略。本项目研究为关键基础设施规划、建设、运营、维护管理提供新思路方法，为国家关键基础设施评价与保护政策制定提供决策支持，助力提高中国经济社会可持续发展能力。

中国关键基础设施系统功能供给趋于碎片化，难以满足经济社会生态安全的发展需求，更无法有效应对内部失效、自然灾害或蓄意攻击，关键基础设施系统生态优化与韧性提升成为亟待解决的重大现实问题。本项目秉承“系统之系统”思想，综合运用管理学、复杂系统、演化博弈、系统仿真等理论方法，围绕综合基础设施管理、交通基础设施的经济性及可达性系统分析了关键基础设施系统生态结构及运行机制；针对交通、建筑基础设施领域的关键问题分析了关键基础设施系统生态演化机理；围绕城市交通及公共服务基础设施构建了关键基础设施系统韧性评价方法，深入解析关键基础设施生态演化的潜在风险；根据当前城市基础设施的潜在环境风险，提出了中国关键基础设施系统生态优化及韧性提升策略。本项目研究为关键基础设施规划、建设、运营、维护管理提供新思路方法，为国家关键基础设施评价与保护政策制定提供决策支持，丰富发展基础设施管理体系，为保障国家关键基础设施安全提供基础性、战略性和前瞻性的理论支撑。