关键基础设施系统复杂适应性机理建模及控制策略

As the important carrier for the sustainable development of regional economic, society and ecology, critical infrastructure systems should have the ability to adapt to the environment dynamically. This project prepares to integrate multi-disciplinary theories and methods, such as management science, complex system science, and control science, and build a unified framework for analyzing critical infrastructure system’s complex adaptive mechanism, as well as the control strategy. In order to achieve the goal, the research is divided into three parts. Firstly, we will abstract the functional mapping relations of infrastructure individuals and systems, establish the function network correspond to structure network, and then, build the ‘structure-function’ network model to analyze the dynamic adaptive mechanism between individuals, as well as individuals and environment. Secondly, we will analyze the cascade behavior features and cascade communication rules of typical infrastructure systems, and analyze the matching mechanism between system function supply and economic-social-ecology system requirement under uncertain environment. Thirdly, we will build co-evolution model between critical infrastructure system and the circumstance of economic-social-ecological, simulate typical critical infrastructure system changes of long-term performance under different scenarios. Then, put forward the complex adaptive control strategy of infrastructure system. All in all, this research could provide new ideas and methods for critical infrastructure planning, construction, operation and maintenance, as well as develop and enrich the theory system of urban planning and regional development. All these achievements will provide decision support for formulating and implementing infrastructure related policy scientifically.

作为区域经济、社会和生态可持续发展的重要载体，关键基础设施系统应具备动态适应环境的能力。本项目拟综合运用管理科学、复杂性科学和控制科学等多学科理论方法，建立关键基础设施系统复杂适应性机理分析与控制的统一框架。抽象基础设施个体与系统功能的映射关系，建立与结构网络对应的功能网络，构建结构-功能超网络模型，解析系统个体间及其与环境间的动态适应机制；分析典型基础设施系统的级联行为特征和级联传播规则，研究建立不确定条件下，系统功能供给与经济社会生态系统需求的匹配机制；建立关键基础设施系统与经济社会生态系统协同演进模型，仿真不同情景下，典型关键基础设施系统长期绩效的变化，提出多层次、分阶段的关键基础设施系统复杂适应性控制策略。本项目研究为关键基础设施的规划、建设、运营、维护提供新思路和新方法，丰富和发展城市规划和区域发展的理论体系，为国家科学制定实施基础设施相关政策提供决策支持。

作为区域经济、社会和生态可持续发展的重要载体，关键基础设施系统应具备动态适应环境的能力。本项目综合运用系统科学、运筹学、博弈论等多学科理论方法，对“硬”和“软”关键基础设施系统建模分析，深入揭示关键基础设施系统的复杂适应性机理。. 围绕“硬”关键基础设施，构建失效风险下反恐应急设施选址博弈模型，提出一种基于人口的启发式算法来求解；统筹考虑经济成本和心理惩罚，建立城市涝灾后考虑延误价值的公路恢复优化模型；引入企业生产能力差异，考虑受灾地和需求量的不确定性，建立基于情景的应急物资配置两阶段随机规划模型；将灾前库存水平和灾后采购数量的决策与人道主义救济中的供应商选择相结合，提出库存和采购联合决策的随机优化模型；分析区域交通基础设施生态系统演化的动力机制，构建系统演化模型及系统种群共生演化模型，描述系统整体演化过程及系统多种群趋向不同平衡态的演化路径。围绕“软”关键基础设施，运用复杂适应系统理论构建公共危机网络信息传播的多主体仿真模型，基于Netlogo平台仿真，比较并分析各主体属性在不同参数设置下的演化结果；基于NK模型，以适应度景观的复杂性和动态性刻画应急管理决策情景的不确定性，研究不同情景下集权、分权和层级等决策模式的组织系统的适应性特征，以及组织文化、决策者能力、信息流等因素的影响机理；解析国际经济治理机制的公共产品特征，根据供给主体特征及中国参与情况，分析G20、CAFTA、APEC、EU等对中国贸易水平的影响。通过对以上模型和算法的算例分析，系统分析关键基础设施系统应具有的复杂适应性特征，并提出相应的优化策略。.本项目研究有助于分析归纳关键基础设施系统的自适应演进规律，更好地理解系统可靠性、成本等限制条件下不同控制策略的适应性，为关键基础设施的规划、建设、运营、维护提供新思路和新方法，丰富和发展城市规划和区域发展的理论体系，为国家科学制定实施基础设施相关政策提供决策支持。