中国能源系统韧性演化模型及其情景规划研究

Our early findings of this project indicate that, under the ever-changing internal and external disturbances, China's energy system shows some physical resilient characteristics. For example, the enduring, expensing, and recovering of the energy supply and energy price. Therefore, it has been a critical deep necessary for the sustainable development and security of national energy to: (1) build relevant resilience theory and methodology; (2) explore the performance characteristics and changes of our national energy system; (3) forecast the application of energy system to social and economic development. This project aims at: (1) expanding the application of resilience theory in the field of energy system; (2) enriching the theory and methodology of the optimizing of energy system; (3) providing a scientific basis for the government to formulate a long-term mechanism policy on the development and promotes the optimizing of energy system..Based on the above realistic demands, this project focuses on China’s energy system, and tries to achieve the following specific goals. First, demonstrates the characteristics of the resilience of China’s energy system, and provide the theoretical and analytical methodology correspondingly. Second, identifies the energy system disturbance factors, and establishes a database of China's energy system disturbance factors. Third, builds a resilience evolution and quantification model of China's energy system, to characterize the dynamic responding, replying, and recovering of the system under disturbances. Fourth, sets the scenario parameters based on different indicator dimensions and different energy types to perform scenario plan and policy simulation for China's energy system by using scenario simulation and system dynamics, and designs a policy simulation system for improving the resilience of China's energy system. Finally, formulates feasible routes and policies to improve the resilience extent of China’s energy system, based on the findings of this project.

课题前期研究发现，中国能源系统在内外部扰动因素冲击下，存在诸如供给、价格的承受、损失、恢复等物理的韧性特征。如何构建相关的韧性理论和方法，揭示我国能源系统的性能特征和变化，预判其对社会经济发展的适应性，成为国家能源安全和能源可持续发展的深层需求。本课题旨在拓展韧性理论在能源系统领域的应用，丰富能源系统优化理论和方法，为我国能源经济安全、可持续发展提供新的政策制定视角和依据。具体而言，课题以能源系统为研究对象，论证中国能源系统韧性的特征，给出相应的理论和分析方法；给出识别能源系统扰动因素和建立其数据库；创建能源系统韧性演进和量化模型，描述能源系统在受到扰动情况下的动态响应、应对和恢复的规律性并构建量化模型；运用扰动因素进行情景参数设置，对不同能源的系统韧性及恢复力进行模拟，并相应地设计出不同能源的系统韧性强度临界点，给出强化韧性的政策效应仿真；依据效应结果制定提高中国能源系统韧性强度的路径。

当前，世界正处于风险易发高发期，各种类型的“黑天鹅”事件随时可能带来难以预料的风险。能源作为人类赖以生存的资源，在动荡的世界格局中，无法避免其供给受到冲击。一个具有韧性的能源系统，在面对危机时，能够有效的预防、抵御危机，快速从危机中恢复。因此，在危机常存在背景下，树立底线思维、进行情景推演，构建一个具有强大韧性的能源系统，对于实现能源强国具有重要的现实意义。.项目组以我国能源系统为研究对象，（1）构建了基于韧性曲线的能源系统韧性研究分析框架，包括能源系统韧性理论框架、依据能源系统的结构进行模型构建、以及依据可能发生的进口短缺风险确定进口短缺冲击，并根据韧性曲线的各个阶段，将能源系统韧性测度分为鲁棒性测度和恢复性测度；（2）在基于鲁棒性的韧性测度下，使用海关进口数据，构建了进口复杂网络模型，将进口短缺冲击抽象为网络节点的失效，结合Matlab软件和蒙特卡洛模拟，考察了能源系统对进口短缺冲击的承受能力，并找出提升系统鲁棒性的关键因素；（3）在基于恢复性的韧性测度下，分析了中短期和长期供应短缺的恢复机制，基于系统动力学理论，使用Vensim软件分别构建了中短期恢复性系统动力学模型和长期恢复性系统动力学模型。通过合理的情景设置，进行了情景仿真模拟分析并测算不同恢复策略下的系统恢复性，以及影响系统恢复性大小的关键因素；（4）结合模型分析结果中提升系统韧性的关键因素，并分析了现有的能源相关政策，以提升系统韧性为出发点，提出了能源保障体系建设的政策优化建议。本项目以中国能源安全为主题，深入关注进口短缺风险下的能源系统韧性，旨在为当前国际能源贸易摩擦不断的背景下，尤其是中美贸易争端期间，我国的能源系统如何应对进口短缺冲击提供科学依据。