不确定条件下水质水量优化配置与风险决策方法研究

Integrated optimal allocation of water quality and quantity is a challenging task in water resources researches, which is also a desired approach for tackling problems of water shortage and deterioration in China. In this project, based on water cycle simulation and multi-level optimization, a set of modeling methods for integrated optimal allocation of water quality and quantity will be developed. The system will incorporate a distributed hydrological model with water-quality simulation models, and reflect all kinds of uncertainties existed in the system factors and their relationships. Thus, the proposed methodology can support the integrated optimal allocation of water quality and quantity under varying conditions and generate multiple management schemes. In details, the proposed methodology include: (1) characteristics of hydrological and environmental systems under uncertainties, (2) simulation of water cycle processes under varying conditions, (3) inexact optimization for water quality and quantity allocation, and (4) performance assessment and risk evaluation for multiple allocation schemes. A case of the Wenyu River watershed will be studied in the project. The multi-region and multi-sector system regarding water quality and quantity allocation for five regions (i.e. Haidian, Changping, Shunyi, Chaoyang and Tongzhou) in Beijing will be studied. In this research, various types of models, methods and techniques, will be creatively coupled within a systematic framework to support the integrated allocation of water quality and quantity. The results will help provide effective technical support for dealing with a series of practical problems in the Wenyu River watershed, such as water resources utilization and distribution, water environment protection, and industrial development.

水质水量统一优化配置是水资源研究领域的一个难点，也是解决我国水资源短缺、水生态环境恶化这一重大需求问题的有效途径。本研究将开发基于水循环模拟和多层次优化的水质水量联合配置模型系统。该系统将耦合分布式水文水质模拟模型，并反映大量系统成份及其间关系的不确定性，从而实现在变化条件下水量水质综合调控管理与风险决策。该模型系统主要包括4个方面：（1）不确定性水文-水环境综合辨识，（2）变化条件下水循环过程模拟，（3）不确定性水质水量优化配置，（4）配置方案的优选与风险评价。研究选取温榆河流域作为案例研究对象，在不确定条件下对北京市五区（海淀、昌平、顺义、朝阳和通州）进行跨区域跨行业的水质水量优化配置研究。研究将创新性地实现多种方法与技术在水质水量优化配置中的耦合应用，研究结果将对温榆河流域水资源利用与调配、水环境恢复和保护、产业发展等一系列实际问题提供科学支持。

水质水量统一优化配置是水资源研究领域的一个难点，也是解决我国水资源短缺、水生态环境恶化这一重大需求问题的有效途径。本项目组针对不确定性水质水量优化配置和配置方案的优选与风险评价这两个核心科学问题，开发了一系列基于区间-模糊-随机分析、多目标规划技术的不确定性流域水质水量优化配置与风险决策分析方法，具体包括：(1) 两阶段机会约束分式规划、2) 基于存储论原理的区间机会约束规划、 (3) 模糊随机分式规划、(4) 强健水资源优化配置区间-随机分式规划。 同时，本项目为东营市、禾水流域等多个实例研究的构建了不确定性的多目标多层次水质水量统一优化配置模型，取得了良好的实例研究效果。通过创新性地将多种方法与技术在水质水量优化配置中的耦合应用，为流域水资源利用与调配、水环境恢复和保护、产业发展等一系列实际问题提供了有效的科学支持。