耕地保护和节约集约目标下城乡建设用地置换研究：运行机理、风险识别与优化模拟

Risks appear frequently during the replacement of urban and rural construction land in China, whereas theoretical research on this problem is scarce.This project, choosing Chongqing as a case study, plans to research on the operation mechanism, risk identification and system optimization of urban and rural construction land replacement under the goal of protecting cultivated land and intensive land use..Based on the Core-Periphery thoery and Game Model, the operation mechanism of urban and rural construction land replacement is analyzed. System dynamics is utilized to simulate the demand of urban and rural construction land replacement. According to the result of qualitative research, the risk identification and evaluation model is developed through analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and risk matrix method, then the risk decomposition and prevention model is set up.Finally, under the multi-objective optimization model, the optimizing policy of urban and rural construction land replacement is put forward. .This study will have innovative contribution to the theoretical research on the urban and rural construction land replacement, and provide quantitative decision support for institutional optimization.

本项目针对我国城乡建设用地置换风险频现且研究方面存在理论与方法缺陷的状况，拟采用定量模型- - 风险辨别- - 优化模拟的思路，开展耕地保护和节约集约目标下城乡建设用地置换的运行机理、风险识别与制度优化研究。项目选择重庆地票模式为典型案例，结合核心-边缘理论和博弈模型研究运行机理；开发基于系统动力学的城乡建设用地置换需求模型并进行仿真模拟；基于质性研究的结果，结合层次分析法和风险矩阵法，开发城乡建设用地置换风险识别与评价模型以及风险分解与防范模型；构建多目标下城乡建设用地置换制度优化模型，并用倒推法提出优化政策包。从科学意义讲，本项目的开展可以实现城乡建设用地置换研究的理论创新；从实践意义讲，本项目的开展可以为我国城乡建设用地置换风险防控和优化管理提供定量化的决策支持。

本项目针对我国城乡建设用地置换过程中风险频现且研究方面存在理论与方法缺陷的状况，选择重庆地票制度为典型案列，采用运行机理-风险识别-响应优化的思路展开研究。通过核心-边缘理论、土地发展权转移理论、级差地租地理对城乡建设用地置换的空间运行机理进行分析；创新性的采用博弈模型对城乡建设用地置换行为主体运行机理进行分析并挖掘风险点；分析影响城乡建设用地置换的需求和供给因素并建立供求机制模型，提出供需方面的风险；对城乡建设用地置换的风险因素进行综合识别和评价后，提出主要风险；首次从内涵挖掘、优化、拓展的角度提出城乡建设用地置换的持续发展的优化途径。从科学意义讲，本项目的研究结果可以实现城乡建设用地置换研究的理论创新；从实践意义讲，本项目的结果可以为城乡建设用地置换风险防控和优化管理提供定量化的决策支持。