货币政策波动、企业金融资产投资与资金“漏损效应”——基于社会资本视角的经验研究

This project will study the micro firms' financial behaviors under the fluctuation of monetary policy, based on dual financial environment of China where formal finance and informal finance coexist. The project believes that SOEs and listed companies have offered loans to private-owned firms or small and medium-sized firms by the means of financial assets investments, forming apparent funds leakage effects. Leakage effect is the important basis to explain the phenomenon that Chinese economy maintains the vigor and realizes the growth under the condition of formal finance channel constrains. However, it has offseted the monetary policy regulation effects of Central Bank,and has resulted in the economic consequences of excessive financing investments and hollowing of industrial capital in financing bodies with superiority such as SOEs. This project believes that funds leakage effect will be affected by monetary policy and social capital environment. Monetary policy has changed the firm external financing constraints condition. Social capital environment influences the information asymmetrical degree and transaction cost, then plays the role of accelerator in the process of funds leakage . The leakage effects in regions with higher social capital might be more serious,which may bring more entity economic crises and financial risks. Research of this project will offer further understandings of effects of social capital as an informal instutition on influencing firm financing and investment behaviors and results of monetary policy, and will offer an important revelation to understand effects of macro monetary policy regulation, firm financial assets investments and capital leakage effects.

本项目立足于中国正规与非正规金融并存的二元金融环境，研究货币政策波动下微观企业财务行为。本项目认为，国企及上市公司通过委托贷款等金融资产投资的形式向民营及中小企业变相贷款，形成明显的资金漏损效应。漏损效应是解释正规金融渠道压抑条件下中国经济保持活力并实现增长的重要依据，但其对冲了央行货币政策调控效果，更导致国有企业等优势融资主体过度金融化、产业空心化等经济后果。本项目认为，资金漏损效应会受到货币政策与社会资本环境的重要影响。货币政策宽松与紧缩改变了企业外部融资约束条件；社会资本环境影响信息不对称程度与交易成本，进而在资金漏损过程中起到加速器作用。社会资本越高的地区资金漏损现象可能更严重，带来的实体经济危机与金融风险就更大本项目的研究将重新认识社会资本这一非正式制度在货币政策传导与影响企业投融资行为等方面的作用，对于深入理解宏观货币政策调控效果、企业金融资产投资与资金漏损效应具有重要启示。

本项目立足于中国正规与非正规金融并存的二元金融环境，结合企业嵌入的非正式制度背景，研究货币政策波动下的微观财务行为。本项目收集了近年来能够衡量“漏损效应”的有代表性的上市公司金融资产投资数据，构建相关模型进行实证研究，发现了我国货币政策波动的经济后果和影响货币政策效应的社会资本因素，有助于帮助学术界和政策制定部门深入理解我国货币政策的效应，更有针对性地进行宏观调控。