城镇化进程中“碳锁定”的形成机理、风险测度与解锁策略研究

In contrasts to the internal requirement of urbanization, the city smog is currently growing into a larger scope, which reflects the characteristics of high carbon of fossil energy consumption and also demonstrates the urgency reform of the carbon regulation policy. Firstly, based on the coupling model of economic system, energy technology, consumption habits and the inter-regional competition, we give theoretical explanation to the formation mechanism of “Carbon Lock-In”; Secondly, we quantify the economic system and energy technology, and quantitatively calculate the risk of “Carbon Lock-In” in the process of urbanization, combine with the spatial econometric model, panel vector autoregression model and other methods to identify the influence of urbanization on industrial structure and carbon emission reduction; Finally, Starting from the dual perspective of energy technology and investment regulation policy, on the one hand, we put forward the guide for investment in renewable energy technology, strengthen the technology spillover effect to avoid the high “Carbon Lock-In” in the process of urbanization, on the other hand, we empirically analysis of the influencing factors of the renewable energy investment behavior and policy responses under the uncertain incentive regulation policy, and put forward that combining the continuous sound regulation policy and renewable energy market response, in order to provides commercializes route selection for the Carbon Lock-Out, our study has important theoretical inspiration and policy implications for the construction of China’s renewable energy cities.

城镇化的内在要求与当前大范围城市雾霾天气日益加剧所形成的强烈反差，折射出化石能源消耗的高碳特征与碳规制政策改革的紧迫性。本研究首先基于经济制度、能源技术、消费习惯与地区竞争的耦合模型，对“碳锁定”的形成机理进行理论解释；其次，将经济制度和能源技术量化，定量测度了中国城镇化进程中的碳锁定风险，结合空间计量模型和面板向量自回归模型等方法识别“碳锁定”对城镇化进程中产业结构与碳减排的影响；最后，从能源技术替代与投资规制政策的双重视角切入，一方面提出通过有效引导可再生能源技术研发、强化技术扩散效应的发展思路以避免城镇化被高碳锁定,另一方面针对激励性规制政策不确定下的可再生能源投资行为影响因素及其政策反应进行实证分析，研究提出通过规制政策与可再生能源市场反应相结合，以此为碳解锁提供市场化路径选择，本研究对中国可再生能源城市建设具有重要的理论启发与政策意涵。

“碳锁定”严重阻碍了低碳经济所需要的新技术研发及其普及，实施有效的“碳解锁”策略对于治理城市雾霾天气，推进可再生能源城市建设具有重要的现实意义。本课题从城镇化进程中“碳锁定”的形成机理切入，通过将能源技术与经济制度量化，有效实现了对“碳锁定”风险的定量测度，并从可再生能源技术替代与规制政策设计维度为“碳解锁”提供重要的理论与政策路径选择。本课题研究结果表明：生产技术水平、经济制度、人口城镇化和产业结构的交互作用是导致“碳锁定”的重要成因；采用两种替代变量衡量“碳锁定”风险，一是根据全社会用电量推算火力发电量，进而推算煤炭消耗量，基于煤炭消耗量推算二氧化碳排放量，在假定城市碳排放主要来源于能源消费的基础上，将“碳锁定”风险界定为碳超载量，二是将城市空气质量好于二级的天数作为衡量“碳锁定”风险的代理指标；对人口密度、产业结构与城镇化质量关系的回归结果表明，人口密度与城镇居民恩格尔系数呈现“U”型关系，产业结构对城镇化质量的影响较为不显著；对新能源发电效率及其驱动因素进行了测算和实证，结论表明，城镇化率提升阻碍了可再生能源发电效率提升；参照美 、英、日等国能源供给侧改革的时机把握、工具选择与效应波及等经验，为中国能源供给侧改革与城镇化进程中“碳解锁”策略选择提供了有益启示。本课题研究成果可为城镇化进程中“碳锁定”的成因、风险量化和“碳解锁”策略选择提供理论、实证与政策参考。