城镇化进程中的能源消耗：影响机理、中国实证及管理策略

Urbanization is a phenomenon of economic and social modernization.China has undergone rapid urbanization in recent decades. This possibly causes more energy consumption, exerting additional pressure on the already fragile ecosystem. Cities consumed more than two-thirds of whole energy and produced over 70% of carbon dioxide emissions. It is important to consider the manage strategy of energy consumption from the viewpiont of urbanization. The relationship between urbanization and energy use has been studied extensively in recent years. Most literature concentrate on the correlation and dynamic impact between urbanization and energy consumption. In fact, the relationship between urbanization and energy consumption is complex. There are many characteristic differences among countries or regions of different levels of economy development. And extended characters of urbanization also make influences on energy consumption. But these have not been got suffecient attention. In order to investigate the effects of urbanization on energy consumption,this project firstly considers the international and Chinese facts,then analyzes the relationship among different regions according to STIRPAT model. With the rapid urbanization, urban size, urban spatial structure and urban industry show different features in the different stage. Theoretically, the dual impact of urban size on energy consumption is interprected by the change of urban system and urban size itself. Then empirical analysis is carried out using cross-section and panel data. Compact city is considered as one of the most important ways of reducing energy consumption and pollution. Energy consumption is affacted by compact city with high density and mixed land. City compactness is evaluated by comprehensive index system at the city level. Then the evaluation scores are used as the explanatory variable to analyze the impact of compact city on energy consumption. With the economic development of city, there are changes on the specialization and diversity of industry. They will make an obvious influence on energy efficiency. Theoretical mechanism between specialization, diversity and energy efficiency is discussed and tested by panel data in this project. In next 20 years, China's energy demand will rise more rapidly than that it has. Concerning the economic development and structure change, scenario analysis is applied to explain the trend of energy consumption. Considering the trend and characters of urbanization, the manage strategies of energy-saving and ejection-decreasing are put forward.

中国快速城镇化进程中面临日益严峻的能源问题，城市能源消耗在总体能耗中占到2/3以上，迫切需要从城镇化视角考虑能耗管理策略。已有研究集中于探讨城镇化与能源消耗的关联性及动态关系，缺少对两者关系的差异性及城镇化延伸特征影响能源消耗机制、效应的研究。本项目以总体逻辑框架为基础，考察城镇化影响能源消耗的国际经验及中国表现，利用STIRPAT模型分析影响效应的地区差异性；阐释城市规模通过城市体系与城市本身规模变动对能源效率的双重影响，利用截面及面板数据开展实证分析；解析紧凑城市借助高密度、土地混合利用两条路径对能源消耗产生影响的内在机理，开展城市紧凑度的综合测评，根据评价结果分析其对能源消耗的影响效应；在测度城市产业专业化、多样性特征的基础上，探究专业化、多样性对能源消耗的影响机制，以面板计量模型进行实证检验。最后，根据对未来我国能源消耗的预测及情景分析，结合城镇化发展趋势，得到有效的能耗管理策略。

中国快速城镇化进程中面临日益严峻的能源问题，城市能源消耗在总体能耗中占到2/3以上，迫切需要从城镇化视角考虑能耗管理策略。已有文献缺少对城镇化延伸特征影响能源消耗机制、效应的多层面考察及探讨。本项目系统梳理现有文献，搭建城镇化影响能源消耗的总体逻辑框架，考察城镇化影响能源消耗的内在机制及实际效应，分析影响效应的阶段差异性；阐释城市规模影响能源效率的机制及路径，依据对城市全要素能源效率的测算结果开展城市规模影响能源效率的实证分析；解析城市紧凑度影响能源效率的内在机理，根据城市紧凑度综合测评结果分析其对能源效率的影响效应；探究城市专业化、多样性对能源消耗的影响机制，在测度城市产业专业化、多样性特征的基础上开展实际效应的检验。研究发现：(1)城镇化影响能源消耗的直接效应是规模效应、技术效应、结构效应和阶段性效应的综合作用结果，间接效应主要源于区域之间的空间溢出效应。(2)当前城镇化对能耗强度具有正向促进作用，不同地区的城镇化进程对能耗强度的影响存在显著差异。(3)城市规模与能源效率呈U型关系，U型曲线最低点对应的城市人口规模为300万左右。(4)城市紧凑度总体上对能源效率产生促进作用，但不同城市规模下的影响效应呈非线性变动态势。(5)城市产业专业化、产业多样性对能源效率产生正向影响，但不同规模城市、不同分位点上的影响效应存在显著差异。项目组利用随机前沿分析(SFA)测算得到的全国224个地级以上城市全要素能源效率数据为后续相关研究奠定了扎实的基础，提供了可供借鉴方法与数据，研究结论对推进城市可持续发展、节能减排具有重要的参考价值。