中国人口城镇化进程中的家庭消费碳足迹演化机理研究

n the fast process of “Human-oriented” urbanization, China is actively exploring economic structural transformation path by expanding domestic demand. Due to these two driven forces, The impact of the changes in consumption patterns of farmers, migrant workers and citizens on China's carbon emissions in future should not be overlooked. However, the research on identification of carbon consumption patterns of farmers, migrant workers and citizens, and the research on the dynamic evolution mechanism of carbon footprint in the changes of farmers’ role in urbanization is still in the beginning phase. The previous research outcomes of the applicant shows that: because of the deeper participation of regions in the China’s domestic value chain, the goods production chain is nested in many regions. As a results, the embodied carbon emissions per unit value in the goods will contains various technologies information of many regions (carbon emissions per unit valued-add). Thus, the embodied carbon emissions per unit value in the goods is a composite index. However, the other research did not adopt a suitable method to distinguish these information, so they can not give a precise evaluation of embodied carbon emissions per unit value in the goods. Therefore，the research aims to construction the calculation framework of household consumption carbon footprint based on the added value decomposition technique. And, based on this calculation framework, we will conducted the following research: identification of carbon consumption patterns of farmers, migrant workers and citizens; exploring the dynamic evolution mechanism of household consumption carbon footprint in the “human-oriented” urbanization in China; exploring the low carbon path in the urbanization based on the “Four-phases” carbon footprint scenario analysis. Finally, these contributions can provide the basis of decision-making for low-carbon urbanization.

在中国人口城镇化进程快速推进和通过扩大内需带动经济结构转型的双重拉动下，城乡居民家庭消费规模和消费模式的变迁对我国未来碳排放的影响不容忽视。然而对农民、农民工和市民家庭碳消费模式的识别，以及对农民在“市民”化过程中家庭消费碳足迹演化机理方面的研究尚处于起步阶段。申请人前期研究表明：由于我国各区域在国内价值链中参与度的不断提高，消费品的生产链嵌套于多个区域中，使消费品的单位价值隐含碳系数变成一个包含多区域不同技术水平信息（单位增加值含碳量）的复合系数，而已有研究忽视了这种生产分割带来的区域性差异。鉴于此，本项目将着力构建基于增加值分解技术的家庭消费碳足迹测算框架，并在此基础上展开三方面研究：识别农民、农民工和市民的家庭碳消费模式；剖析人口城镇化“四阶段”家庭消费碳足迹演化机理；基于“四阶段”家庭消费碳足迹情景分析，研究人口城镇化进程中的“碳解锁”路径。研究成果可为低碳城镇化发展提供决策依据。

本项目运用MRIO模型着力构建了基于增加值分解技术的家庭消费碳足迹测算框架，并选取中国家庭追踪调查数据作为微观数据样本，基于该测算方法展开以下三方面研究：构建QUAIDS需求模型识别居民家庭碳消费模式；构建“环境-生产-分配-消费”联立方程模型与QUAIDS需求模型相结合剖析人口城镇化进程中的“碳锁定”效应形成机理；构建“人口城镇化-收入分配-经济增长-技术进步”综合分析模型模拟分析人口城镇化进程中的“碳解锁”路径。本项目的主要发现有：1）由于国内价值链上的生产分割，消费品单位价值隐含碳是个蕴含了多区域生产技术水平信息的复合系数，利用传统的单一系数测算家庭消费品碳足迹容易造成高估或低估偏误。2）居民家庭的人口特征与其碳消费模式密切相关。3）居民家庭高碳消费习惯、生产技术结构短期刚性、人口城镇化进程中农民工消费习惯市民化共同构成了三个维度的“碳锁定”效应。4）缩小收入差距、加深国内价值链参与度、适度控制人口城镇化进程中的四种效应有助于 “碳解锁”。主要创新点为碳足迹测算方法重构、碳消费模式量化识别、碳锁定机理与解锁路径剖析。研究成果可以为低碳城镇化发展提供政策依据。