生产全球化与传统产成品贸易对中美劳动力市场的影响

This project studies the impacts of global production and traditional final goods trade on the labor markets in the developing and developed countries (such as China and the United States). This research question stems from the fact that the developed country labor markets are perceived as suffering from international trade, and the culprit is usually considered global production (or alternatively called global value change, offshoring, global production sharing, segmentation etc.) However, there is scant convincing direct evidence that global production has caused such problems. In this project, we try to take advantage of the foreign direct investment policy changes in China and the sensitivity to offshoring measures at the industry level to separate the impacts of global production from the traditional final goods trade. We will not only study global production and traditional final goods trade impacts on the developed countries (represented by the United States), but also their impacts on developing countries (represented by China). The detailed research topics including: how to measure the foreign direct investment policy changes, policy change impacts on the inflow of foreign direct investment, the impacts of foreign direct investment on global production and traditional final goods trade, and how these two types of trade affect the labor markets in China and in the United States. The objective of the project is to identify global production impacts from traditional final goods trade, so to shed lights on the mechanism of how globalization may affect developed world and developing countries. The results of this research might help our government to choose the optimum trade policy and to improve the welfare of our country.

本项目研究生产全球化与传统的产成品贸易分别对中国和美国的劳动力市场的影响。这一问题源起于当前发达国家劳动力市场受到国际贸易的冲击，而这种冲击又常被归咎于发达国家向发展中国家进行的离岸外包（即生产全球化）。学术界却很少有研究能够提供生产全球化对发达国家劳动力市场影响的直接证据。本研究通过我国外商直接投资政策的变化以及行业对离岸外包敏感度度量分离出生产全球化与产成品贸易分别对美国劳动力市场的影响，并同时研究其对我国劳动力市场的影响。具体课题包括：我国外资政策的量化与变化，外资政策变化对外商直接投资的影响，外商直接投资分别对生产全球化与产成品贸易的影响，两种贸易分别对中国和美国劳动力市场的影响等。本研究的目的在于将生产全球化对劳动力市场的影响从传统产成品贸易的影响中分离出来，真正理解生产全球化对于发达国家与发展中国家福利的不同影响。本研究将有助于我国制定最优的贸易政策，提升我国国民的最大福利。

项目围绕生产全球化、产成品贸易以及劳动力市场影响等问题开展研究，在这些方面提出一些新的理论和证据。项目完成了计划发表论文的目标，在国际著名期刊如Journal of International Money and Finance，Journal of Population Economics，Journal of Urban Economics，the World Economy等发表论文7篇，在国内顶级期刊如《经济研究》《国际贸易问题》等发表论文8篇。项目还完成了一篇资政报告得到国务院办公厅的采用。基于项目的研究成果，项目组完成《国际贸易理论与中国实践：信贷约束、生产全球化与贸易参与》专著，该专著在2021年由人民出版社出版。项目的主要研究内容为，在生产全球化方面，项目研究了生产全球化的特点，生产组织形式的决定，我国在全球价值链中的位置，加入生产价值链对于企业融资约束的缓解作用，以及中国加入RCEP对于RCEP区内各国国际贸易的影响等。在产成品贸易方面，项目研究了房价提升对于我国贸易顺差的影响，信贷约束对于企业出口形式选择的影响，我国对外直接投资的资源寻求特性，开发区政策对于企业出口参与的影响等问题。在劳动力市场影响方面，项目回答了综合保税区政策对于制造业就业的影响，最低工资对创新和增长的动态影响，中国城市基础教育对家庭的资源和价值等问题。