不完全汇率传递下的货币政策研究与福利分析

Enormous studies have shown that it is a common phenomenon for countries to represent incomplete exchange rate pass-through, which, together with its asymmetry of degrees between countries, has a great influence on the transmission mechanism and choice of rules of monetary policy. This project aims to study the influence of incomplete exchange rate pass-through on the transmission mechanism of monetary policy and the resulting welfare effects under the framework of new open economy macroeconomics. With the growing importance of monetary policy in China's macroeconomic control and regulation, China is in a crucial period of intermediate target adjustment of monetary policy and institutional reform of exchange rate regime. In this context, this project intends to analyze the international transmission mechanism of the three kinds of monetary policy rules (money supply, interest rate and exchange rate) and their corresponding welfare effects as well as macroeconomic implications under the circumstance of incomplete exchange rate pass-through. By doing this analysis, welfare distribution and optimal monetary policy can be formulated under various combinations of different monetary policy rules and degrees of exchange rate pass-through, which enables the discussion of possibility and conditions of international policy coordination and cooperation. At last, FAVAR model will be utilized to analyze the impact of economic openness on China's monetary policy transmission mechanism. The combination and comparison of the previous results of numerical simulations and the econometric analysis can help clarify and refine the considerations and directions of China's adjustment on monetary policy and exchange rate regime, providing systematic policy recommendations and decision plans of macroeconomic control and regulation for China in an ever opening economic environment.

大量研究表明许多国家都存在汇率不完全传递的现象，而且不完全汇率传递和各国汇率传递程度的不对称性对货币政策传导机制和货币政策规则的选择产生了重要影响。本课题将在新开放经济宏观经济学的框架下，研究不完全汇率传递对货币政策传递机制的影响，以及由此产生的福利效应。因为中国现在正处于货币政策中介目标调整和汇率制度改革的关键时期，而且货币政策在中国宏观经济调控中的地位日益重要，所以本课题将在不完全汇率传递的情况下，分析货币供给量、利率、汇率等三种货币政策规则的国际传导机制、福利效应和宏观经济影响，研究不同汇率传递程度和不同货币政策规则搭配情况下的福利分配和最优货币政策，从而探讨国际货币政策协调和合作的可能性和条件。最后，我们还将利用FAVAR模型全面考察经济开放对中国货币政策传导机制的影响，并通过与前面理论模型数值模拟的结果进行对比分析，从而进一步明确和细化我国货币政策和汇率政策调整的思路和方向。

大量研究表明许多国家都存在汇率不完全传递的现象，而且不完全汇率传递和各国汇率传递程度的不对称性对货币政策传导机制和货币政策规则的选择产生了重要影响。本课题在新开放经济宏观经济学的框架下，研究不完全汇率传递对货币政策传递机制的影响，以及由此产生的福利效应。因为中国现在正处于货币政策中介目标调整和汇率制度改革的关键时期，而且货币政策在中国宏观经济调控中的地位日益重要，所以本课题在不同的汇率传递程度下，对比分析各种货币政策规则的国际传导机制、福利效应和宏观经济影响，研究汇率传递程度与最优货币政策规则之间的相互关系，探讨国际货币政策协调的优劣。最后，我们还将利用中国经济数据从实证角度考察了货币政策的影响，并通过与前面理论模型数值模拟的结果进行对比，从而明确我国货币政策和汇率政策调整的思路和方向。