不完全汇率传递与货币政策研究——经济全球化进程中的问题与挑战

Enormous studies have shown that it is a common phenomenon for countries to represent incomplete exchange rate pass-through, which has a great influence on monetary policy transmission mechanism and macroeconomic effects. Recently internationalization of RMB has directly affected the choice of invoicing currency of Chinese importers and exporters, which causes the change of exchange rate pass-through. At the same time, the accelerated process of economic globalization has exerted far-reaching influence on many aspects of international capital flow, the international monetary system, the international transmission of economic fluctuations, which increases the complexity of the international transmission of monetary policy and the difficulty of regulation. Therefore, only with a profound understanding of the impact of incomplete exchange rate pass-through on the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, we can effectively promote the reform of RMB exchange rate and ensure the implementation of China’s monetary policy. .This project will begin with the empirical analysis between the choice of invoicing currency and RMB exchange rate pass-through, then introduce the characteristics of incomplete exchange rate pass-through into the framework of the new open economy macroeconomics. China is in a crucial period of opening to world and deepening reforms, and monetary policy plays more and more important roles in Chinese macroeconomic regulation and control. So this project will investigate the effects of exchange rate pass-through on monetary policy transmission mechanism from multiple perspectives, such as financial integration, international currency, and liquid trap. And this project will study the optimal monetary policy and spillover effect under the matches of countries with different economic traits and different monetary policies, and then discuss the possibility and condition of the coordination and cooperation of international monetary policies. At last, VAR extended models will be utilized to analyze the impact of exchange rate pass-through on China’s monetary policy transmission mechanism. The combination and comparison between the numerical simulation results and the econometric analysis can further specify and detail the adjustment direction of Chinese monetary policy and exchange rate regime.

研究表明许多国家都存在汇率不完全传递的现象，而且汇率传递将直接影响货币政策传导机制和宏观效果。近年来，经济全球化进程也加大了货币政策国际传导的复杂性和调控难度。因此，只有深刻理解不完全汇率传递对货币政策传导机制的影响，才能在经济全球化进程中有效推进人民币汇率改革，保证我国货币政策的顺利实施。.本课题计划从中国实际数据出发，考察计价货币选择与汇率传递之间的关系，然后将汇率不完全传递的特征引入新开放经济宏观经济学的框架进行相关的理论研究。本课题将从金融一体化、国际货币、流动性陷阱等三个方面来考察汇率传递对货币政策传导机制和宏观经济效果的重要影响，研究最优货币政策规则和货币政策的外溢效应，探讨国际货币政策协调的可能性和条件。最后，本课题还将通过VAR系列模型全面探讨中国货币政策传导机制及其有效性，并通过与数值模拟结果的对比分析，进一步明确和细化我国货币政策和汇率制度调整的思路和方向。

研究表明许多国家都存在汇率不完全传递的现象，而且汇率传递将直接影响货币政策传导机制和宏观效果。近年来，经济全球化进程也加大了货币政策国际传导的复杂性和调控难度。因此，只有深刻理解不完全汇率传递对货币政策传导机制的影响，才能在经济全球化进程中有效推进人民币汇率改革，保证我国货币政策的顺利实施。.本课题首先从中国实际数据出发，以市场份额为切入点，研究市场份额对中国汇率传递的影响，发现汇率传递程度与市场份额呈正“U”型关系；并进一步考察了竞争国汇率变动对汇率传递的重要影响及传导机制。其次，我们利用理论模型探讨了不同汇率传递程度下中国货币政策规则的选择问题，认为现阶段我国中央银行需要兼顾数量型和价格型两种政策工具。在人民币汇率传递程度较低的现阶段，中国货币当局应当加大利率与汇率的联动机制，把货币错配引入我国最优货币政策规则的调控中。最后，我们还从经济全球化进程的角度考察了零利率下限、国际资本流动、中美贸易摩擦等现实经济问题。此外，我们利用贝叶斯参数估计对模型拓展中的关键参数进行估计，并以此为基础考察影响中国经济波动的重要冲击和影响因素，从而厘清中国经济宏观波动的内在传导机制，为相关的货币政策分析奠定基础。