基于大气海洋耦合模式的溢油污染扩散过程与海岸带脆弱性评估研究

Both Pulic and local goverments have paid more attention on contingent oil spills recently. It is critically important to propose a vulnerability assessment of coastal zone prior to oil spills for an integrated coastal zone managemnt. In this proposal, the Chinese Bohai Sea is selected as study area in question with a focus on oil spill risk analysis, investigation of both physical coastal type and economic value of coastal zones. The proposed vulnerability assessment consists of three major parts: risk analysis of oil spills based on ocean-atmosphere (POM-HWRF) coupling model, statistical mapping of coastal impacts resulted from potential oil spills and a comprehensive vulnerablity assessment with regard to risky, physical and economic factors. Moreover, the proposed POM-HWRF coupling model for oil spill fate and its further application in vulnerability assessment of coastal zones responding to oil spills provides guiding for other pollution managments.

针对近几年国内外很多突发性的溢油污染事件，我们需要及时提出该类突发性溢油事故的事前风险评估，以及在溢油污染胁迫下的海岸带脆弱性评估，避免以后再走"先污染、后治理"老路。本课题举例渤海海上溢油，以建立采油区块发生潜在溢油危害生态资源岸段的风险概率评估模式为主线，同时开展渤海岸线类型、海岸带经济使用价值调查，对溢油污染协迫下的渤海海岸带开展综合脆弱性评估。其三个主要组成部分：基于大气海洋（POM-HWRF）耦合模式的海上石油污染物行为归宿模型、海岸岸段所受到的污染危害概率统计、最后提出融合风险、物理和经济的海岸带综合脆弱性评估方法。此外，该耦合模式的污染物漂移扩散动态过程模型以及海岸综合带脆弱性评估方法对于其他污染物管理有参考意义。

本课题举例渤海海上溢油，以建立指定地点发生潜在溢油后，危害生态资源岸段的风险概率评估模式为主线，同时对渤海岸线类型、海岸带经济使用价值调查，开展了溢油污染协迫下的渤海海岸带开展综合脆弱性评估，提出了突发性溢油事故的事前风险评估方法，评估了溢油污染胁迫下的海岸带脆弱性，避免以后再走“先污染、后治理”老路。其主要包括三个组成部分：基于大气海洋（ROMS-WRF）耦合模式的海上石油污染物行为归宿模型、海岸岸段所受到的污染危害概率统计、融合风险、物理和经济的海岸带综合脆弱性评估方法。该耦合模式的污染物漂移扩散动态过程模型以及海岸综合带脆弱性评估方法对于其他污染物管理有重要参考价值。