基于时空动力模型的传统村落历史形态演化规律探究与保护性规划引导——以广东客家村落为例

With rural revitalization now being stimulated by China’s economic structure adjustment, an increasing number of traditional rural settlements have lost their cultural characteristics in the high-speed spatial reconstruction. This yields an important issue about protecting and inheriting regional context in the practice of rural planning. One feasible approach is to learn the law of evolution history using a dynamic quantization model which may guide the protective development based on the "self-organization" characteristic of rural space. However, some problems still remain to be solved: (1) how to recover the dynamic process of rural settlements from limited historical data; (2) how to choose the control variables in the spatial process; (3) which model should be used to describe the complicated relationship between these control variables and the dynamic spatiotemporal process; (4) how the dynamic model will work for people’s cognition of spatial history, and for the protective planning of traditional villages. Accordingly, this research rebuilds the spatial process of some representative traditional Hakka villages in Guangdong Province, and creates spatial dynamic models based on cellular automaton to unriddle the historical law, to evaluate the current status, and to predict the reasonable development, which will be helpful for the comparative study of the historical spatial rules between different villages, and giving proper guidance for future spatial conservation and development. This research will play an important role in improving the theoretical framework and the practical method for the protective planning of traditional rural settlements base on spatial context.

随着中国乡村振兴步伐的推进，大量传统村落在高速的空间改造中丧失文化特质。如何在空间实践中保护并传承地域文脉？一种可行的思路是：基于传统村落空间过程的“自组织”特征，借助动态量化模型来挖掘村落空间的历史演化规律，并引导村落的保护性规划。但该思路的实现需解决以下问题：①如何利用有限史料还原村落空间的动态建构过程；②如何甄别空间建构过程的控制性变量；③运用何种模型以描述控制变量与动态时空的复杂关系；④所构建的动力模型如何辅助人们认知历史，并推动保护性的空间规划。对此，本课题选取广东数处代表性的客家传统村落进行空间过程复建，并基于元胞自动机思想方法创建时空动力模型，完成村落空间的历史规律挖掘、现状评估与宜建地预测。藉此研究并比较不同村落的空间演化规律，为村落形态的保护与发展提出指导性建议。最终，本研究冀求完善基于空间文脉的传统村落保护性规划的理论框架与实践方法，促进空间实践中的文化传承。

随着中国乡村振兴步伐的推进，大量传统村落在高速的空间改造中丧失文化特质。为有效地桥接历史研究与物质空间规划，探究空间实践中地域文脉的保护与传承方法，本研究选取粤港地区体现空间组织模式演进历程的一系列传统客家村落，创建时空动力模型的，完成村落空间的历史规律挖掘比较、现状评估与宜建地预测。本研究主要解决以下问题：①通过多类史料数据调查整合，复建村落微观历史空间过程；②借助单变量高斯混合模型筛选比较地域性空间特征控制变量；③对传统模型的模拟流程与内嵌算法进行改良，创建适用于村落斑块动态模拟的元胞自动机模型；④基于元胞自动机模型变量与参数分析，挖掘比较不同村落的时空动力机制，并利用该模型作宜建地预测与现状评估。本研究成果打破时空动力研究思想在传统村落历史研究方面的应用瓶颈，突破元胞自动机模型在模拟小尺度散碎空间发展方面的局限性，将一直以来诉诸定性化语言描述的历史规律转译为动态量化模型，以具有更高认知深度与操作精度的工具来辅助传统村落布局形态的解读与演绎。