城市河流洪水风险对环境变化的响应机理及归因定量识别

Fluvial flood risk under global warming has been a critical scientific issue in environment change research worldwide. It is of significance to reveal the mechanisms of flood risk response to complex environment changes and quantitatively attribute the changes in flood risk for flood control, disaster mitigation, and sustainable socioeconomic development...Fluvial flood is a key component of urban flood with significant impact on the security of urban communities. Taking the frequently flooded Qinhuai River, which has direct impact on Nanjing city, as a case study, the project will be conducted by using a combined comprehensive research approach of field investigation, theoretical analysis and numerical simulation, etc. The main objectives of the project are as follows: (1) to reveal the mechanisms of the evolution of urban fluvial flood risk and its response to changes in complex environmental drivers and enrich theory of flood risk assessment under changing environment; (2) to develop an integrated assessment model for simulating flood risks in the context of environmental change by coupling hydrological model, hydraulic dynamic model, and flood risk assessment method; (3) to propose a methodology to quantitatively identify attributions of change in flood risk via dynamically simulating flood risk processes driven by different environmental scenarios. ..The project will not only prompt interdisciplinary research and development in climatology, hydrology, and environmental science, but also could provide direct scientific support for the flood control and disaster mitigation of Nanjing city, as well as the planning and management of the Qinhuai River basin. Therefore, it is of significance to conduct the project in both scientific research and application practices.

河流洪水风险研究是国际环境变化领域的重大科学问题。揭示洪水风险对环境变化的响应机理及定量风险变化归因，对防洪减灾和经济社会稳定发展等方面均具有重要意义。.城市河流洪水是城市洪涝的重要组成，影响尤为突出。选择洪水灾害频繁发生、对南京市具有直接影响的秦淮河为研究对象，以环境变化与洪水风险为主线，采用实地调研、理论分析与数值模拟等多种方法相结合的技术途径开展研究。科学揭示复杂环境下河流洪水风险演变与驱动机理，创新变化环境下河流洪水风险评估理论；耦合流域水文模型、复杂平原河网水动力学模型和洪水风险评价方法，构建环境变化下河流洪水风险模拟模型；提出洪水风险变化归因定量识别方法，评估不同驱动要素对洪水风险的影响，定量解析变化环境下河流洪水风险变化归因。.研究可促进气候、水文与环境等多学科的交叉融合与发展，丰富变化环境下河流洪水风险评价方法理论体系，科技支撑南京市的城市防洪减灾，科学意义与实践价值重大。

河流洪水风险研究是国际环境变化领域的重大科学问题。揭示洪水风险对环境变化的响应机理及定量风险变化归因，对防洪减灾和经济社会稳定发展等方面具有重要意义。本项研究以秦淮河流域为研究区，在建立流域多源长时间序列基础数据集的基础上，构建了秦淮河流域洪水灾害链的指标序列及洪灾风险评估框架，分析了变化环境下河流洪水风险演变趋势及特征，辨识了河流洪水风险演变对不同环境驱动因子变化的响应机理；建立了反映平原河网环境变化驱动的水文水动力模型，构建了集成风险评估框架和水文水动力模型的洪水风险模型，实现了复杂环境驱动下河流洪水风险的动态模拟；提出了河流洪水风险归因定量识别方法，定量分析了不同驱动要素对河流洪水风险的影响，综合评价了洪水风险变化归因。成果创新了复杂环境变化下洪水风险模拟和评价方法体系，为流域及城市防洪减灾规划提供有效科学支撑。.结合项目研究成果发表学术论文25篇，其中SCI源刊论文15篇，获国家发明专利1项，授权软件著作权8项，组织召开国内外学术会议4次，邀请国内外专家学者做学术讲座2次，受邀做国际学术大会主旨报告23次，培养硕、博士研究生3名。.本项目负责人于2019年获批享受国务院特殊津贴、当选国际水文科学协会（IAHS）地表水专委会副主席，入选2021年度水利领军人才，于2022年4月获得刘光文工程技术奖；项目骨干先后6人次分别获得首届（2020年度）大禹水利科学技术创新团队奖（南京水利科学研究院变化环境下水文生态效应创新团队）、2021年度中国大坝工程学会科技进步奖一等奖、2021年度大禹水利科学技术一等奖和2022年度大禹水利科学技术奖一等奖；项目成果入选2021年中国精品科技期刊顶尖学术论文领跑者5000、第六届中国科协优秀科技论文遴选计划优秀论文，首届江苏省科技期刊优秀论文、第七届中国科协优秀科技论文。