不同尺度流域水文循环过程对气候与植被变化的耦合响应关系及模拟

The significant change in hydrological cycle process, including observed runoff, potential evaporation, etc, has been detectable due to environmental change. The interactions and responses between climate change, vegetation coverage change, and changes in hydrological cycle elements has been a great challenge for scientists in eco-hydrology sciences. Taking scale differently catchments as study areas, the overall objective of the project is to reveal response mechanism of hydrological cycle process to changes in climate and vegetation coverage, and provide scientific supports for sustainable utilization of water resources and construction of ecological restoration project. Using integrated approach of scientific pilot experiment, statistics-based analysis, and numerical modeling etc, the specific research targets of the project are as follows: (1) To analyze driving mechanism of changes in rainfall and vegetation cover to hydrological cycle process at experimental watershed scale; (2) To study coupling actions of climate variables and vegetation cover to runoff at medium catchment and large scale basin; (3) To establish numerical model of hydrological cycle for assessment of coupling action of climate change and vegetation cover change; (4) To identify response of hydrological cycle process, including runoff and its components, soil moisture, and catchment evaporation, to changes in climate and vegetation coverage at different scale catchments; (5)To assess hydrological effects of vegetation cover change and project water resources under the future global warming. The expected achievements of the project will not only rich the knowledge of eco-hydrology, improve theoretical framework of climate change study, but also be of significance for water resources planning, flood control, drought hazard mitigation, as well as construction of ecological restoration projects.

变化环境下观测的水文循环要素发生了显著性的趋势性变化，气候、植被与水文循环过程的相互影响及响应已成为全球变化研究中的前沿科学问题。以不同尺度的试验流域与自然流域为研究对象，本项目的总体目标是揭示不同尺度流域水文过程对气候与植被变化的耦合响应机理。通过科学试验、数理分析与数值模拟相结合的途径，重点分析小尺度试验流域降雨与植被变化对水文循环要素的驱动机制，研究中大尺度流域气候、植被对径流的耦合作用，构建考虑气候与植被耦合作用下的水文过程模拟模型，理清不同尺度流域水文循环过程要素（径流及其组成、土壤水、流域蒸散发）对气候与植被变化的响应关系，科学评估植被变化的水文效应及未来全球变化下水资源情势。研究成果不仅可促进气候学、生态学及水文学的发展，在某种程度上完善气候变化影响评价的理论体系，而且对流域水资源规划及防洪抗旱减灾和生态环境建设具有重要意义。

变化环境下观测的水文循环要素发生了显著性的趋势性变化，气候、植被与水文循环过程的相互影响及响应已成为全球变化研究中的前沿科学问题。本项研究以清流河流域和水利部滁州水文试验流域为研究对象，分析了不同植被下垫面条件下试验流域水文过程特征，揭示了不同时间尺度径流与气候要素变化之间的响应机制；提出了强化植被指数（EVI）与气候要素之间的驱动响应关系，建立了基于气候与植被驱动的流域水文模型，实现了径流及其组成、土壤水、流域蒸散发等水文要素的动态模拟；定量评估了未来气候变化与植被响应耦合驱动下的流域水资源情势。成果完善了气候变化影响评价的理论体系，促进气候学、生态学及水文学的发展。.结合项目研究成果发表学术论文44 篇，其中SCI源刊论文9 篇，EI源刊论文3篇；出版学术专（译）著2本，获国家发明专利4项，受邀做国际学术大会主旨报告3次；培养硕、博士研究生3名。.本项目负责人作为“水利应对气候变化研究创新团队”的负责人，该团队入选2015年度科技部重点领域科技创新团队，项目负责人并于2016年入选第五期“江苏省333人才工程中青年领军人才（第二层次）”，同年入选2016年度“全国优秀科技工作者”；于2017年，项目负责人入选“国家百千万人才工程”并被授予“有突出贡献中青年专家”，同年，入选第三批国家“万人计划”领军人才。项目技术骨干1人次入选2015年中国科协“青年人才托举工程”。