气候变化对淮河流域洪水风险影响机理及趋势研究

Flood risk under global warming is currently an international scientific issue in climate change science. It is of significance to understand the impact of climate change on flood risk for flood defence, dissaster relief and regional planning of social economic development, etc. Taking the Huai River basin as a case, which has been frequently hitted by extrem floods, the specific objectives of the project with focus on climate change and flood risk are as follows: (1) to identify drivers of flood risk evolution and scientifically reveal mechanism of flood risk in reponse to climate change under complicated environment (i.e. climate change and human activities); (2) to establish an integrated simulation system of climate change impact on flood risk coupling models for impact of climate change on.hydrological processes, flood routing hydrodynamics, and flood risk assessment; (3) to project future climate change of the Huai River basin over next decades using climate scenarios issued by IPCC-AR5, and assess the potential impact of climate change on flood risk trends; (4) to address adaptive strategy and effective measures to mitigate climate change impact based on flood risk management. This research will not only advance multi-disciplinary development of hydrology, climotology, sociology, and science of disaster, but also provide.direct scientific supports for flood control, disaster mitigation, and water resources planning of Huai River basin.

全球变暖下的洪水风险问题是目前国际上气候变化领域的重大科学问题。认识气候变化对洪水风险的影响，对防洪减灾和社会经济发展规划等方面具有重要意义。以洪涝灾害频繁发生的淮河流域为研究对象，本项目以气候变化与洪水风险为主线，科学揭示复杂环境下洪水风险的形成与演变机理；构建淮河流域的气候变化对水文过程影响评价模型、洪水演进水动力学模型和洪水风险评估模型，形成气候变化对洪水风险影响的综合模拟与评价系统；采用最新的IPCC-AR5发布的气候情景，科学评估未来气候变化对淮河流域洪水风险的影响及趋势，提出基于风险管理的气候变化适应对策。研究成果不仅可直接支撑淮河流域的防洪减灾与治理规划，而且可以极大促进气候学、水文学与灾害学等多学科的交叉融合和发展。预期成果包括： 发表学术论文10余篇，其中SCI/EI期刊论文8篇，出版专著1本。

项目面向气候变化与洪水风险响应这一国际前沿问题，根据国内外研究现状，选择洪涝灾害频繁发生的淮河流域为研究对象，开展了近60年来淮河干流径流演变规律分析、近60年来淮河流域暴雨集中程度时空变化特征，揭示了淮河流域中游地区洪涝灾害多发原因；建立了淮河流域洪水风险定量化指标，开展了气候因子对淮河流域洪涝风险影响，评估了淮河流域洪涝风险；构建基于格点的气候变化影响评价模型，从流域系统视角建立流域-区域-城市洪水风险分析框架，提出淮河流域洪涝灾害应对策略；以IPCC-AR6发布的SSP-RCP气候情景为基础数据，根据淮河流域实测的气候因素（降水、气温等）分析评估不同气候模式在淮河流域的适应性，遴选一些较为适合淮河流域的气候模式，评估了未来气候变化对淮河流域洪水风险的影响与趋势。科学评估未来气候变化对淮河流域洪水风险的影响与趋势可支撑流域的规划与治理。