多目标协同模式下梯级水库群通航能力优化调度研究

Due to the impact of flood control and power generation, navigation capacity of reservoir area channel is suppressed for cascaded reservoirs. In flood season, to protect downstream flood safety, reservoir capacity navigable mileage is shortened by lowering the water level of reservoirs. In non-flood season, owing to the power grid load changes, unsteady flow generated by hydropower peaking deteriorate reservoir fairway flow regime, which reduces the reservoir navigation capabilities. The key to solving these problems is how to resolve mutual influence of flood control, peaking power generation and shipping schedule for cascade reservoirs, construct multi-objective optimization model and efficiently solve it, and propose multi-target collaboration strategy of enhance navigation capabilities. Therefore, we use one-dimensional unsteady flow model to simulate the hydrodynamic characteristics of reservoirs and navigable navigable capacity. Through the quantitative modeling calculations of different inflow conditions, we explore the mutual influence of flood operation, power generation and shipping scheduling and calculate the border of feasibility region. Then multi-objective operation model is established based on water regulation and hydrodynamic simulation which solved by intelligent optimization algorithm. Finally, multi-target collaboration strategy for enhance navigation capacity is presented based on synergetic theory. The research results can provide a theoretical basis and practical tools for the scientific development of cascade reservoirs shipping watershed planning.

梯级水库群库区通航能力受汛期防洪与非汛期发电调峰调度方式的制约。汛期为保障下游安全，水库群腾空库容降低水位缩短了库区通航里程；非汛期，由于电网负荷变化，水电站调峰产生非恒定流恶化库区航道的水流流态，降低了库区通航能力。解决上述问题的关键在于如何解析梯级水库群汛期防洪、非汛期发电调峰与航运调度间的相互影响关系，构建多目标航运优化模型并高效求解，并提出在防洪、发电制约下提升通航能力的多目标协同运行策略。为此，项目研究运用一维非恒定流模型模拟分析库区航道水动力特性与通航能力；通过不同来水下多种调度方式的定量模拟计算，探究防洪、发电与航运调度间的相互影响规律和作用边界；建立基于水量调度与水动力模拟的多目标通航能力优化模型并进行智能优化求解；进而基于协同学理论，提出防洪、发电制约下提升通航能力的梯级水库群多目标协同运行策略。研究成果可为流域梯级水库群航运规划的科学制定提供理论基础和实用工具。

在汛期为保障下游安全，水库群腾空库容降低水位缩短了梯级水库库区航道通航里程；在非汛期，由于电网负荷变化，水电站调峰产生非恒定流恶化库区航道的水流流态，降低了库区通航能力。针对上述问题，项目以金沙江下游水库群联合航运方式为研究对象，运用一维非恒定流模型模拟分析了金沙江下游库区航道水动力特性与通航能力，对金沙江下游梯级水库群现状、2015年两库建成和2020年四库完建三种情景进行了计算对比分析；通过不同来水下多种调度方式的定量模拟计算，剖析了防洪、发电与航运调度间的相互影响规律，基于微分博弈策略给出了各个时期水库调度目标的权重值，以及梯级水库运行建议规则；结合梯级水库群汛期防洪、非汛期发电调峰与航运调度间的相互影响关系，构建了基于水量调度与水动力模拟的多目标通航能力优化模型，提出了免疫差分智能优化求解方法，将其与防洪、发电逐一联合求解，提出了在防洪、发电制约下提升通航能力的多目标运行策略。分析了日调节非恒定流对向家坝下游航运水流条件的影响，并给出了兼顾下游航运要求的向家坝水电站枯水期日发电优化运行方式。研究成果为流域梯级水库群航运规划的提供了依据。