能源密集型产业结构变迁与区域空气质量变化的关联效应及作用机理

Rapid industrialization has been an important impetus for China’s economic growth. Meanwhile, this has made regions that experienced fast economic growth confronted increasingly heavy pressures in terms of resources and environmental. Atmospheric environmental protection is an important matter related to socio-economic sustainable development, residential health and public safety. . At present, China's regional atmospheric environmental problems are increasingly prominent and have aroused widely attention. In recent years, provinces in the North China Plain have suffered severe air quality problems. How to make balance between economic growth and environmental protection has been the main concern within academic literature. Human’s economic factors combined with meteorological factors have greatly impacted on regional air quality. However, the exact role of the industrial transition on air quality still needs an in-depth study, especially the mechanism of how the energy-intensive industries driven the air pollution has not been well illustrated. This project seeks to answer three questions: firstly, to describe the characteristics of industrial transition and spatial shift of energy-intensive industries within the North China Plain; Secondly, to explore the spatial coupling effect of the structure transition of energy-intensive industries with the environmental pollutants and air quality; thirdly, to estimate the spatial spillover effects between different regions. These questions will be explored based on datasets at the prefecture level cites in the North China Plain, including Beijing, Tianjin municipality cities and Hebei, Shandong and Henan provinces. . This project is expected to contribute to comprehensive treatment and collaboration in regional air pollution control and environmental protection. Also, it will provide decision-making references for industrial layout and planning. Based on conclusions drawn from this project, suggestion will be given for both centralized (top-down) governmental policies and local governmental policies. Thus, the project will not only contribute to the academic literature, but also have important implications for environmental policies and regulations.

大气环境保护事关社会经济持续发展、居民健康和公共安全。当前，我国区域性大气环境问题日益突出并引起各界广泛关注，尤其是华北地区大气污染更为严重。学界对于人类社会经济活动因子叠加自然气象因子，对区域空气质量形成双重驱动作用已达成共识，但对于自然-人文要素互馈的基本路径仍需展开深入研究，尤其是人类经济活动驱动因子中能源密集型产业的作用机理、影响强度和作用方式尚需深入研究。本项目以环境污染物的重要排放源-能源密集型产业为研究对象，以地级以上城市为空间单元，精细刻画能源密集型产业结构演变与空间转移格局及内涵的环境污染物排放转移效应；揭示能源密集型产业结构变迁与区域环境空气质量变化的耦合特征与关联机理，明确产业结构差异和空间溢出效应对空气质量变化的驱动机制和作用途径；预估能源密集型产业结构变迁对区域空气质量的影响强度与影响方式，为区域空气污染综合治理与防控协作路径选择、为产业空间布局规划提供决策依据。

随着中国工业化和城市化进程的推进，区域经济发展取得显著成效；但与此同时，也面临着生态环境等问题的严峻挑战，尤其是在人口高度密集的城市化地区，空气污染问题更为突出。城市空气污染形成和演化的机制十分复杂，需要从多学科思维角度深入探讨。学界对于区域空气质量问题是自然气象因子和人类社会活动因子双重驱动的结果已达成共识，但是对于人类产业经济活动因子的作用机理、影响强度和作用方式需要更多实证研究的支撑。本项目选取能源密集型产业的环境影响研究是一个重要的切入点。. 本项目采集多源数据，集成计量经济模型与统计模型、GIS及空间分析模型，综合研究了中国高耗能产业布局演变和结构变迁与区域空气质量的动态关联效应，开展了多区域尺度的深入研究。基于6种空气污染物和复合空气质量指数，研究了中国城市空气质量的区域差异、时空演化特征，并揭示其与主要的社会经济影响因素的关联效应和响应关系。综合分析中国城市能源消费碳排放的时空特征和驱动因素，划分城市“经济-碳排放”耦合类型。结果表明：自然因素和社会经济因素对不同种类空气污染物浓度的影响差异较大，且与污染物浓度之间存在非线性响应关系。社会经济活动因子中，城市化、工业化、交通和能源消耗是影响城市空气污染物浓度的主导因子。中国在高耗能产业生产规模逐年增加的情况下，有效地控制了区域空气污染的加剧，表明产业转型和技术升级等新型经济增长方式可有效提升经济发展质量。通过优化产业结构和社会经济活动方式，中国部分城市实现了经济增长与碳排放的脱钩。. 本研究构建了跨学科的思维体系和研究视角，丰富和拓展了环境经济地理的理论和实证研究。当前，中国经济进入结构转型和实现“双碳目标”的关键时期，本项目的研究成果对于制定高效的环境治理措施和低碳城市规划方案、探讨产业结构转型路径、提升区域发展质量具有重要的理论价值与实践意义。