中国区域产业结构演化对碳排放的影响机理及效应研究

Global warming has become the focus problem of all countries should work together to deal with. As a major emission country, confronting the given emission reduction commitments, China need to develop a reasonable and specific emission reduction frame diagram urgently. This project intends to focus on industrial structure factor, which has been widely recognized having potential negative effects on carbon emissions, and establish the theoretical evolution framework of carbon emissions in China based on New Economic Geography and Evolutionary Economics. Using agent-based model, an innovation of the theoretical paradigm and method on micro-level would be achieved. Taken the digging of industrial structure and its implication as logical base, this project will establish the econometrics model, and analyze the impacting effect and mechanism of industrial structures on carbon emissions by traditional and nonparametric econometrics. Meanwhile, the industrial division and fusion level can reveal the internal driving force of the evolution of the industrial structure. Thus, based on simultaneous equations econometrics and input-output data, this project will conduct the analysis and deduction of the evolution of carbon emission during the process of diversification and refinement of industries in China, to integrate the multifaceted information of industrial structure and discuss the trend and pattern of the sustained increasing in emissions. Industrial structure can build up the logical correlation between regional development and carbon emission. Therefore, the emission peak and reasonable mitigation can be calculated and has the potential to provide a reference for future strategies in global climate negotiations.

全球气候变暖已成为各国应共同应对和解决的焦点问题。作为排放大国，中国在已确定减排承诺的前提下，亟需制定合理具体的自主减排路线图。本课题拟着眼于已受到广泛认可的对碳排放具有潜在负效应的产业结构因素，建立基于新经济地理学和演化经济学的中国碳排放演化理论演绎框架，采用agent为基础的建模技术实现微观层面的理论范式和方法创新。以产业结构及其指示意义的挖掘为逻辑基点，构建计量经济学模型，结合传统计量和非参数计量工具，研究产业结构和产业内结构对碳排放演化的影响及作用机制；并在产业分工和融合水平层面上揭示产业结构演化的内在驱动力，采用联立方程计量和投入产出数据，对中国碳排放在产业多样化和细化过程中的演化特征进行分析和演绎，并将产业结构多层面信息的综合效应进行对应融合，阐释碳排放演化趋势和规律。本研究将以产业结构为桥梁，对中国碳排放峰值时点和合理减排幅度进行测算，以期为未来气候谈判策略制定提供决策参考。

全球气候变暖是当前各国应共同应对和解决的焦点问题。本课题从已受到广泛认可的对碳排放具有潜在负效应的产业结构因素入手，建立基于新经济地理学和演化经济学的中国碳排放演化理论演绎框架，采用ABM建模技术实现微观层面的理论范式和方法创新。以产业结构及其指示意义的挖掘为逻辑基点，结合传统计量和非参数计量工具，研究产业结构和产业内结构对碳排放演化的影响及作用机制，在产业分工和融合水平层面上揭示产业结构演化的内在驱动力，采用投入产出数据，对中国碳排放在产业多样化过程中的演化特征进行分析，并将产业结构多层面信息的综合效应进行对应融合，阐释碳排放演化趋势和规律。主要得到以下结论：第一，处于不同收入水平下的省份各影响因子与碳排放之间的关系存在异质性。中国仍处于碳排放与经济发展的同步增长阶段，减排政策将会对经济增长产生负向反馈，故现有减排路径的选择需要高度审慎的设计与实施。第二，中国省际碳强度呈现逐年递减的时间变化趋势和由西北向东南梯度递减的空间分布格局，中国的碳强度空间溢出关系存在显著的“马太效应”。技术进步对我国区域整体起到碳减排效用，可借助低碳区域良好的经济环境加大低碳技术应用，带动邻域协同减排。第三，区域碳排放具有显著时滞性和空间溢出效应。产业结构合理化水平的提升会促使区域碳排放下降，且短期内存在空间溢出效应。由产业结构高度化提升导致碳排放量的增加属于中国当前发展的固有阶段性特征，而产业结构合理化提升能够拉动碳排放峰值前移，促使碳排放早日达峰。第四，产业关联度的提升对于单位有效劳动的产出水平具有正向效应。在制造业升级过程中，产业关联度对经济发展水平的提升作用由缓和增长至快速推动、最终进入稳定趋缓状态。结合中国当前经济进入“新常态”发展阶段所面临的机遇与挑战，应在重视产业结构升级的同时，大力推动高端、中端制造业及其对应特征服务业类型的关联度，这将为中国经济实现平稳、持续增长提供更为坚持的保障。