农户行为响应的农村面源污染治理政策仿真研究

With the development of pollution control technology, the problem of rural non-point source pollution management highlighted increasingly. As main body of rural non-point source pollution contral, the farm household's behavior decision-making is the key. However the deviation of policy aim from farm household aim and the poor adaptability of translating foreign policy fail to prevent the " tragedy of the commons ".It is imperative that to break through the limitation of traditional research systems, perspectives and methods, and truly apply environment-friendly agricultural production technology to the management of non-point source pollution control, and to explore the suitable farmers-focused non-point source pollution control policy design patterns for China. Taking the villages and towns of Huzhou, upper reach of Taihu basin as the basic sampling units, this study breaks through the traditional modeling ways, using Multi-agent modeling technology, which takes account of the farm household characteristics of "bandwagon effect", "inertia" and "heterogeneous", through modules of the willingness of farm household production and consumption, policy, and rural non-point source pollution module to integrally build policy simulation system. With the support of rural non-point source pollution inventory analysis, priority control areas filter, farm households' production and consumption behavior tracking, farm households' acception willingness to the rural non-point source pollution control policy, and from the systematic perspective, the process and mechanism of "policy drive - farm household behavior optimiae - pollution reduce" will be explored. Then combined with social and economic development and policy innovation, the operational design patterns and the rural non-point source pollution long-acting dynamic management mechanism based on the collaboration of government and farm households will be established and refined.

随着污染控制技术的发展，农村面源污染管理问题日益突显，农户作为主体，其行为决策是关键。而政策目标与农户目标的脱节和引入国外政策手段较差的适应性，未能阻止"公地悲剧"的发生。如何突破传统研究体系、视角及方法的局限，探求适合本土的以农户为核心的面源污染治理政策设计模式势在必行。本研究以太湖上游湖州地区的乡镇为基本研究单元，突破传统的建模方式，采用兼顾"惯性"、"从众效应"和"异质"等农户特性的多主体(Multi-agent)建模技术，通过将农户生产与消费、政策、农村面源污染模块整合构建政策仿真系统。以农村面源污染清单分析、优先控制区筛选、农户生产与消费行为跟踪、农户农村面源污染治理政策的接受意愿调研为支撑，从系统的角度，探讨"政策驱动-农户行为优化-染污减排"的作用过程和机理，结合社会、经济发展及政策革新提炼可操作的政策设计模式及基于农户自愿和政府协同治理的农村面源污染的长效动态治理机制。

随着污染控制技术的发展，农村面源污染管理问题日益突显，农户作为主体，其行为决策是关键。而政策目标与农户目标的脱节和引入国外政策手段较差的适应性，未能阻止“公地悲剧”的发生。如何突破传统研究体系、视角及方法的局限，探求适合本士的以农户为核心的面源污染治理政策设计模式势在必行。本研究以浙江省69县市和太湖上游湖州地区的乡镇为基本研究单元，以农村面源污染清单分析、优先控制区筛选、农户生产与消费行为跟踪、农户农村面源污染治理政策的接受意愿调研为支撑，从可持续发展系统的角度，探讨“政策驱动-农户行为优化-染污减排”的作用过程和机理。研究结果表明：浙江各县市化肥施用、作物秸秆、畜禽养殖、水产养殖、农村生活分别占总污染物等标排放量比例的20.9、4.09、16.93、16.41、41.97，可见，浙江省农村面源污染主要还是由农村生活所产生的。而农户的文化程度、农业劳动力数量、家庭中非农收入比例、农户选择环保行为、农户家庭年收入、农户是否收到测土配方施肥指导卡等农户特性对农户选择环保行为有着显著差异化的影响，同时，不同特性的农户对技术支持政策、价格支持政策和尾水标准政策的选择意愿存在差异。农户对技术支持政策的接受意愿最大，而对于具有限定性技术标准特征的尾水标准的接受意愿最低，价格支持政策居中，并在此基础上，从农户、政府和市场层面设计了引导农户采用环保行为的政策体系，提出了基于农户自愿和政府协同治理的农村面源污染的长效动态治理机制。