企业通胀预期的形成机制及对企业主要经营决策影响的研究

Inflation expectation plays an important role in the setting and implementing of monetary policy, and it is regarded as the major factor for the development of certain economy. Commonly, the acquisition of inflation expectation is through the questionnaire targeted at consumers. But, as the supplier of the product market and the demand of the labor market, the firms’ inflation expectations are significantly different from the consumers’ inflation expectations. This project widen the research field of inflation expectations from macro to firm level’s business decision making through the formulation of the firms’ inflation expectations, the influencing factors and the impacts to wage, pricing and investment decision. Besides, we try to clarify the transmission mechanism of macroeconomic policies to firms’ business decision through firms’ inflation expectations and the roles of firms’ inflation expectations for macroeconomic analyses, providing a new perspective for reviewing macroeconomic policies through firm level. Furthermore, we aim to make great innovations in the following aspects: the construction of firms’ inflation expectation formulation model under imperfect theory, the impacts of macro and micro economic factors to firms’ inflation expectations and investment decision with firms’ inflation expectation under the framework of Neoclassical Investment Theory.

通胀预期在一国货币政策制定和实施过程中扮演举足轻重的作用，也被视为经济发展的主要因素。它一般通过对居民的调查问卷获得。企业作为产品市场的供给者和劳动力市场的需求方，它的通胀预期与居民通胀预期存在显著的差异。本研究从企业通胀预期出发，通过分析其形成机制及对工资、定价、投资等企业主要经营决策行为的影响，将宏观层面的通胀预期研究拓展到微观层面的企业决策行为，并试图厘清宏观经济政策通过企业通胀预期作用于企业决策行为的传导机制以及企业通胀预期在宏观经济分析中的作用，为从微观层面审视宏观政策效果提供新的视觉。并拟在基于不完美信息理论下企业通胀预期形成模型的构建、宏微观因素对企业通胀预期影响以及在新古典投资理论框架下考虑企业通胀预期的投资支出决策模型的构建等方面形成创新。

现有学术研究常无差别的使用消费者通胀预期进行宏观经济政策分析与预测，然而消费者通胀预期与企业通胀预期存在显著差异。因此，本研究结合国内外研究文献，分析与验证企业通胀预期的形成机制。在此基础上深入研究企业通胀预期对企业主要经营决策行为的影响，将宏观层面的通胀预期研究拓展到企业决策行为的微观层面，为从微观层面审视宏观政策效果提供新的视角。本研究从企业通胀预期出发展开两方面研究。第一部分在测度企业通胀预期的基础上构造与检验企业通胀预期的形成机制。第二部分在企业通胀预期形成机制的基础上深入分析企业通胀预期对企业投资、工资和雇佣决策的影响，为将通胀预期用于企业决策提供经验依据。