“去担保”背景下我国网络借贷问题研究：理论分析、实证检验与对策模拟

Credit guarantee of P2P lending platform is an unique phenomenon in China, it has promoted the development of P2P lending in the early stage, but is showing more and more negative effect ,so the regulatory authorities applied “de-guarantee” policy, which will have a significant impact on China's P2P lending industry. The project try to analyze the merchandise , do empirical test and simulation of this problem comprehensively from the aspect of investors, platforms and guarantors: firstly,it applies the “prospect theory” and behavioral finance model to do theoretical analysis and empirical test of investors’ irrational anchoring effect and herding behavior; secondly, it constructs the information economics model to analyze the distortion of credit guarantee on P2P platform , and uses the DID method to study the impact of “de-guarantee” policy on P2P platforms’ performance ; based on complex network theory ,it study the structural features of network between P2P platforms and guarantors, and establishes a PVAR model to test the impact of P2P platforms on guarantors; finally puts forward countermeasures and simulates their effect. The project will provide theoretical guidance and practical reference to macro regulation, P2P lending industry development and investors behavior.

网贷平台增信担保机制是我国的特有现象，它在初期促进了网贷行业的发展，但随着负面作用的显现，监管当局出台“去担保”政策，又将对我国网贷行业产生重大影响。项目从投资人、网贷平台、担保方三个角度，从理论分析、实证检验、对策模拟三个层面，就“担保制”及“去担保”政策的影响进行全面系统的研究：首先运用前景理论与行为金融学模型，对网贷投资人非理性锚定效应、羊群效应进行理论分析和实证检验；其次通过构建信息经济学模型，分析担保机制对网贷平台行为的扭曲，并用DID法考察“去担保”政策对网贷平台经营绩效和改制成效的影响；基于复杂网络理论及方法，刻画和分析网贷平台—担保方之间网络结构，并建立PVAR模型检验平台对担保方绩效与风险的影响；最后针对“去担保”提出配套对策并对其效果进行仿真模拟。项目将为我国网络借贷行业的宏观监管、中观发展、投资人的微观决策提供理论指导与实践借鉴。

网贷平台增信担保机制是我国的特有现象，它在初期促进了网贷行业的发展，但随着负面作用的显现，监管当局出台“去担保”政策，又将对我国网贷行业产生重大影响。项目从投资人、网贷平台、担保方三个角度，从理论分析、实证检验、对策模拟三个层面，就“担保制”及“去担保”政策的影响进行全面系统的研究：首先运用前景理论与行为金融学模型，对网贷投资人非理性锚定效应、羊群效应进行理论分析和实证检验；其次通过构建信息经济学模型，分析担保机制对网贷平台行为的扭曲，并用DID法考察“去担保”政策对网贷平台经营绩效和改制成效的影响；基于复杂网络理论及方法，刻画和分析网贷平台—担保方之间网络结构，并建立PVAR模型检验平台对担保方绩效与风险的影响；最后针对“去担保”提出配套对策并对其效果进行仿真模拟。项目将为我国网络借贷行业的宏观监管、中观发展、投资人的微观决策提供理论指导与实践借鉴。