全民健身公共服务供需匹配机理、测度模型及引导政策研究

The nation’s“12th Five-Year Plan”deployment pay more attention to the social development and the improvement of the public service system, which provides a wider space and important opportunities for public fitness career development. The conflicts between supply and demand in current stage of public fitness career has been a weak point in our development of sports career. Therefore, this program focuses on the problem in the matching of public fitness services, to understand the structure of the demand and the characteristics of supply and demand on the macro level; by using the method of structural equation while doing qualitative analysis to make a further discussion of how the demand of public fitness public services affects the supply; by introducing the two-sided matching theory, analysis the matching between supply and demand mechanism of it, and establish a public fitness evaluation model of public service matching; to set up a decision method for it at the micro level,in order to explore the supply and demand of public service fitness matching guide policy. The contents of this program aim to provide a new perspective of view and scientific decision-making basis for the matching of supply and demand in public service of fitness.

国家“十二五”部署更加重视社会事业的发展和公共服务体系的完善，这为我国全民健身事业发展提供了更广阔空间和重要机遇。现阶段全民健身公共服务供需之间的矛盾，成为我国体育事业发展中的薄弱环节。为此，本项目聚焦全民健身公共服务匹配问题，从宏观层面了解和把握我国全民健身公共服务需求结构及供需特征；在定性分析的同时，采用结构方程等方法，深入探讨全民健身公共服务需求对供给的影响机理；引入双边匹配理论，分析全民健身公共服务供需匹配机理，并在此基础上，构建全民健身公共服务匹配测评模型；从微观层面建立全民健身供需匹配决策方法，进而探寻全民健身公共服务供需匹配引导政策。本项目的研究内容为全民健身公共服务供需匹配提供新的分析视角和科学决策依据。

本项目在“全民健身”国家战略背景下，以可持续发展理论为指导，结合我国全民健身公共服务体系与现实问题，构建全民健身生态系统，从共生角度分析全民健身公共服务需求，并研究其对全民健身公共服务供给的影响机理，探索全民健身公共服务供需匹配的内在机理。以青少年为例，利用LOGISTIC模型刻画出青少年体育公共服务生态系统共生演化路径及其特征。从宏观层面，运用相关性权重法对群众健身公共服务需求内容、需求意向和全民健身公共服务供给内容、供给能力进行测度；基于效用理论建立全民健身公共服务供需匹配测度模型。从微观层面，基于全民健身公共服务需求的模糊信息（中智模糊信息、梯形模糊信息等），构建个体全民健身公共服务双边匹配模型。通过典型城市分析，提出全民健身公共服务供需的虚实联动及引导政策，助力“健康中国”发展。