变化环境下滦河流域干旱传播过程及变异特征研究

Drought is among the most frequent and disastrous natural hazard, which hinders the sustainable development of the socioeconomics. Under global warming and extensive human activities, drought occurrence in a basin may change accordingly, which calls for improved understanding of the drought variability in a changing environment. The objective of this study is to analyze the propagation from meteorological drought to hydrological/agricultural drought in Luan river basin and assess the impact of climate change and human activities on its variations. In this study, distributed hydrological model is applied to conduct the simulation of hydrological processes in Luan River basin. Based on the simulation results, the meteorological, agricultural and hydrological drought indicators are used to analyze the characteristics and evaluation of drought. Cross wavelet transformation and other correlation analysis are also employed to obtain the drought propagation and variation. The contribution and mechanism of how climate change and human activities affected drought propagation are investigated based on the scenarios of hydrological model simulation. The simulations are also performed to predict the drought characteristics and propagation in the future. The results of this study are useful for the water resource management and drought reduction and mitigation measures in Luan river basin.

干旱是常见且影响巨大的自然灾害，严重影响社会经济发展。在气候变化和人类活动影响下，流域干旱事件的发生与特征发生了显著改变，因此迫切需要开展变化环境下流域干旱演变研究。本研究以揭示流域干旱传播过程并厘清气候变化和人类活动对其影响规律与作用机制为目标，在滦河流域开展分布式水文模型模拟，识别基于水文过程的气象干旱、农业干旱和水文干旱，解析滦河流域干旱演变趋势；采用交叉小波分析等相关性探明滦河流域干旱的传播规律变异；通过情景模拟比照揭示气候变化与人类活动对干旱传播的影响，并预测未来情景下的干旱特征与传播规律。研究成果可为滦河流域的水资源管理和防灾减灾提供科学支撑。

在气候变化和人类活动对水文循环系统的影响不断扩大的背景下，干旱驱动因素及传播演变规律尚不明确。本研究以京津冀地区重要水源涵养区滦河流域为研究区，基于站点实测数据、遥感数据和模拟结果等多元融合数据，应用模型模拟、联合分布函数和小波分析等方法，研究变化环境下滦河流域不同类型干旱的演变特征及传播规律。取得的研究成果包括：（1）剖析了流域气象干旱、水文干旱和农业干旱的发展、恢复过程中的变异与迁移路径的时空演化规律。（2）提出了流域多类型干旱事件传播关系的量化识别方法。（3）构建了基于联合分布函数的干旱传播模型，实现了流域未来干旱传播演变趋势预估。研究成果可为京津冀地区干旱风险的防范、水资源可持续利用以及区域的生态安全格局构建提供借鉴。