劳动力成本上升对农业生产的影响机理与实证研究

For the significant changes of factor endowments and its relative prices, China's economy has been entering into a stage of rising labor costs driven by many kinds of factors, like the rural labor transfer, one child policy etc. This project tries to research the substantial influences of rising labor costs on agricultural production and their policy implications. First of all, the project wants to find the stylized fact of agricultural rising labor cost, by analyzing the changes of production costs and their structure in both of the aggregate and crops level. Secondly, the project tries to clarify the relationship between agricultural capital and labor, in order to verify if there exists agricultural capital deepening process or not. Thirdly, the paper tries to find the direction of agricultural technological progress and its changes, along with the international comparisons. Fourthly, the project tries to explain the Chinese characteristic agricultural mechanization mode, by analyzing the farmers' adoption and demand of labor-saving technology. Fifthly, the project tries to analyze the supply characteristics of both agricultural mechanization and hired labor in harvest seasons, to clarify the differentiation of rural-households. Last but not the least, the project tries to discuss the related policy suggestions about dealing with the challenges from rising labor costs and accelerating the transformation of agricultural production mode based on the above empirical researches.

中国经济发展面临的要素禀赋结构和相对价格正发生着重大变化，已逐步进入到一个劳动力成本被各种因素不断推高的发展区间。本项目试图研究劳动力成本上升对农业生产的实质性影响及相应对策。首先，深入研究农业及具体作物品种的生产成本与要素投入结构变化，理清劳动力成本上升的基本事实。其次，深入探讨农业资本与劳动的关系，验证是否存在农业资本深化及其机制。第三，深入考察农业的增长路径，判断农业技术进步偏向及其变化，并进行国际比较。第四，实证分析农户的劳动节约型技术选择行为，从农户需求角度对中国特色的农业机械化模式进行解释。第五，从农户供给角度深入探讨农业机械化的技术供给特征和农业雇工的劳动力供给特征，考察机械化过程中的农户分化情况。最后，在上述研究基础上，重点讨论农业应对劳动力成本上升挑战的政策建议，为加快农业生产方式转型提供科学依据和决策参考。

中国经济发展面临的要素禀赋结构和相对价格正在发生重大变化，已逐步进入到一个劳动力成本被各种因素不断推高的发展区间。本项目重点研究劳动力成本上升对我国农业生产的实质性影响及其对策。首先，深入研究农业以及具体作物品种的生产成本与要素投入结构变化，理清我国农业劳动力成本上升的基本事实与状况。其次，深入探讨农业资本与劳动的关系，验证是否存在农业资本深化及其机制，讨论农业资本深化与人地比例、资源禀赋等之间的关系。第三，深入考察农业增长路径，判断农业技术进步偏向及其变化，运用CGE模型考察农业技术进步的路径选择，实证分析农业技术进步偏向与全要素生产率增长的关系。第四，实证考察劳动力成本上升对主要农作物种植结构和生产要素配置的影响，重点估计劳动力成本上升背景下粮食生产要素的替代与互补关系。第五，实证分析农户的劳动节约型技术选择行为、意愿及影响因素，包括其生产风险管理策略，从农户需求的角度对中国特色的机械化模式进行解释。第六，实证考察有中国特色的农业机械化模式、进程及其影响因素，重点考察农机跨区作业模式及其空间溢出效应，实证调研农机服务“外包”模式和社会化服务体系的发展。第七，应用贸易要素含量方法、HOV模型和出口技术复杂度等指标，实证研究劳动力成本上升对农业国际竞争力的影响。最后，在上述研究的基础上，重点讨论农业应对劳动力成本上升挑战的政策建议，为加快农业生产方式转型提供科学依据和决策参考。