中国农业全要素生产率增长的微观基础及若干农业政策的生产率效应评估

It is an inevitable choice and an ideal political goal to promote the growth of Total Factor Productivity(TFP) for China’s agriculture modernization. This project employs micro-econometric methods and experimental economic methods to investigate the micro-foundation of agricultural TFP growth and evaluate the productivity effects of several typical agricultural policies in China. Firstly, similarities and differences are compared between the macro-aggregate and micro-individual TFP accounting techniques in the aspects of economic principles, including the theoretical assumptions and specific skills, and then the project clarifies the econometric consequences of simply migrating the macro-aggregate methods to the micro-TFP estimations. Secondly, the project applies and develops the frontier of micro TFP estimating methods, constructs a large-scale micro-database of rural households, and investigates the micro-foundation of agricultural TFP growth comprehensively, and then focus on the relationship between the production factor misallocations and micro TFP growth. Thirdly, the project analyzes the econometric problems occurring in the policy evaluations especially the endogenous issues when using the ordinary regression analysis, etc. It also applies and develops the experimental economic methods represented by the "quasi-natural experiment", to clarify the experiment and identification strategies under different data structures and environmental requirements. Fourthly, the project chooses some typical agricultural policies and analyzes the theoretical logic and mechanism of their productivity effects. It also employs different dataset structures and randomized experiments aiming to solve different kinds of endogenous issues. By doing these, the project can deduce the credible and reliable causal relationship to conduct the effective policy evaluation. Last but not the least, the project tries to discuss the related TFP-oriented agricultural policies and suggestions in detail to accelerate the process of China’s agricultural modernization based on the above empirical researches.

促进全要素生产率增长是建设现代农业的必然选择，也是一个理想的政策目标。本项目运用微观计量经济方法和“实验学派”政策评估方法，研究中国农业TFP增长的微观基础，评估代表性农业政策的生产率效应。首先，比较宏观加总与微观个体TFP核算方法在经济学原理、假设等方面的异同，明晰将宏观方法迁移到微观TFP估计时的计量经济学后果。其次，跟踪微观TFP估计方法前沿进展，研究我国农业TFP的微观基础，探讨要素错配与农户TFP的关系。第三，考察回归分析等常用政策评估手段存在的内生性问题，跟踪以“准自然实验”为代表的“实验学派”进展，明晰不同数据结构和评估环境所需要采取的理想化实验和识别策略。第四，选取若干代表性农业政策，分析其生产率效应的理论逻辑，瞄准不同类型内生性问题来源，匹配不同数据结构，模拟不同随机化实验，推断可信的因果关系。最后，详细讨论TFP指向的农业支持政策，为促进我国农业TFP增长提供决策参考。

促进全要素生产率增长是建设现代农业的必然选择。本项目运用微观计量经济方法和“实验学派”政策评估方法，研究中国农业TFP增长的微观基础，评估代表性农业政策的生产率效应。首先，跟踪微观TFP估计方法的前沿进展，研究我国农业TFP的微观基础，系统研究我国农户的全要素生产率问题，并进行不同规模农户的TFP比较；其次，系统探讨要素错配与农户TFP的关系，考察农业资源错配所造成的全要素生产率损失及其改善路径；第三，在“双碳”战略背景下，系统研究我国农业绿色生产率与低碳生产率水平，分析其动态演进和增长因素；第四，考察回归分析、多元统计等常用政策评估手段存在的内生性问题，跟踪以“准自然实验”为代表的“实验学派”进展，明晰不同数据结构和评估环境所需要采取的理想化实验和识别策略；第五，选取若干代表性农业政策，分析其生产率效应的理论逻辑，瞄准不同类型内生性问题来源，匹配不同数据结构，模拟不同随机化实验，推断可信的因果关系，包括农业支持保护补贴、数字经济与互联网发展、信息基础设施建设、社会化服务体系建设和劳动力老龄化等；第六，在脱贫攻坚与乡村振兴有机衔接的背景下，对精准扶贫政策的减贫效果开展专题评估；最后，详细讨论TFP指向的农业支持政策，为促进我国农业TFP增长与高质量发展提供决策参考。