供需紧平衡格局下我国稻谷生产支持政策效应研究—基于增强供给保障能力的视角

It's the most important to ensure national food security that motivating the peasants' enthusiasm for growing grain and enhancing the purveyance security ability of rice. .This project will study on the action mechanism of current rice production support policies how to affect peasants' production decisions and operation behaviors. Then we will systematically evaluate policy production incentives effect and income transfer effect by combination methods which consist of Producer Support Estimate (called PSE), Logit/Tobit Models based on Farmers Behavioral Selection, Stochastic Frontier Analysis（SFA）, statistical analysis and typical case analysis. Also, we will do case study on the minimum purchase price, payments for farm machinery, special payments for large scale peasants' and insurance premium payments for rice, discussing policy spillovers effect and leakage effect. .Meanwhile,the project will analyze agricultural policies and their adjustment path in the process of industrialization,which taking Japan, Korea, India and Chinese Taiwan as examples, try to explore relationship and discipline of economic development, agricultural development and policy adjustments for agricultural support measures, especial for rice. We will analyze the action mechanism, policies effect and implementation conditions of market price support, coupled payments and decoupled payments. .After then, combined with China's nationally situation and food situation, expore suitable specific policies to form rice producing supporting policy system which provided with pointing clearly, structure reasonably, functional complementation, efficiency improvement characteristics. That is, optimization current policies operating methods continually and innovation new rice support policies mechanism.

调动农民种粮积极性、增强稻谷供给保障能力是确保我国粮食安全的重中之重。本项目深入研究我国现行稻谷生产支持政策对农户经营决策的作用机制，运用生产者支持估计、基于农户行为选择的Logit/Tobit模型、随机前沿分析模型、统计分析与案例分析的组合方法系统评估政策的生产效应和收入效应，并对最低收购价、农机具购置补贴、种粮大户专项补贴、农业保险保费补贴作专题研究，深入探讨政策的溢出效应与漏损效应。重点考察日本、韩国、印度及我国台湾地区工业化进程中的稻谷生产支持政策及其调整路径，着力探索经济发展、农业发展与稻谷生产支持政策调整的一般规律；系统研究发达国家价格支持、挂钩补贴与脱钩补贴等主要政策工具的作用机理、政策效应与实施条件。在此基础上，探索适应我国国情粮情，指向明确、结构合理、功能互补、效能提高的稻谷生产支持政策体系，即，继续完善现有政策机制和操作办法，加快探索稻谷生产支持新思路、新途径和新机制。

本项目围绕我国稻谷（粮食）供需格局与发展趋势研究、农业支持政策国际比较与经验研究、我国稻谷（粮食）生产支持政策效果评估及其优化完善研究三大主体内容展开研究。已公开发表项目资助的学术论文 23 篇，其中CSSCI（CSCD）& 北大中文核心期刊 11 篇，北大中文核心期刊 3 篇，英文论文 1 篇；其中基金委制定的重要期刊 2 篇；由中国农业出版社出版专著 1 本；在国务院发展研究中心等内刊资料登载调查研究报告 5 篇；指导完成以项目主体内容为选题的硕士学位论文 4 篇。项目组主办全国性学术研讨会 1 次；参加专题座谈会、国内外学术研讨会 20 余次；参与大量有关粮食生产、粮食政策评价和完善建议调研，涉及黑龙江、吉林、江西、湖南、湖北等近 10 个粮食主产省。项目组成员实现职称晋升 4 人次，获得省级学术荣誉 5 人次。依托项目研究内容培养硕士研究生 5 人，已毕业获硕士学位 3 人。