农民分化视角下农民养老保障与农地流转：互动机理、影响效应与政策创新

Under the background of farmer differentiation, it has important theoretical and practical significance to probe into internal relationship between old-age security for farmers and farmland transfer for promoting the farmland transfer and perfecting rural old-age security policy..Starting with the perspective of farmer differentiation, through the field survey of the sample area, this project will to analyze the cognitive willingness and behavior choice of different farmer stratum for farmland transfer and old-age security, to construct the interactive mechanism theoretical framework between old-age security for farmers and farmland transfer under the perspective of farmer differentiation, to measure the impact of the development level of farmland transfer market and the mode of farmland transfer on the selection of rural old-age security mode for different farmer stratum, to calculate the influential effect of rural old-age security level and mode of different farmer stratum on the behavior of farmland transfer, on this basis, we will seek the policy systems that can promote the farmland transfer and perfect the rural old-age security based on the perspective of farmer differentiation..This project will employ the empirical research method based on the analysis of main body behavior, on the basis of questionnaire survey of farmer household, by means of the method of participatory rural appraisal, the theory of social stratification, the model of ordered probit, double hurdle and structural equation model, the conclusion of this project will provide scientific basis and references for the reformation and innovation of farmland transfer and rural old-age security system.

在农民分化背景下，探讨农地流转与农民养老保障之间的内在关系对于促进农地流转、完善农村养老保障政策具有重要的理论和现实意义。.本项目拟从农民分化视角入手，通过对样本地区的实地调查，分析不同农民阶层对农地流转、养老保障的认知意愿及行为选择；构建农民分化背景下农地流转与农民养老保障之间的互动机理理论框架；分析农地流转市场发育水平和农地流转方式对不同阶层农民养老保障模式选择的影响程度；测算不同阶层农民的养老保障模式及水平对农地流转行为的影响效应；在此基础上，探寻基于农民分化的促进农地流转和完善农民养老保障的政策体系。.本项目将采用基于主体行为分析的实证研究方法，在农户调研的基础上，借助参与式农村评估法（PRA）、社会分层理论、有序Probit模型、Double Hurdle 模型、结构方程模型（SEM）等理论与方法，研究结论将为农地流转及养老保障制度改革与创新提供科学依据。

随着农业和农村经济的发展，农业适度规模经营成为今后农村及农业发展的主要着力点。因此，如何创新农地流转制度，建立灵活有效的土地流转机制，促进农业和农村经济发展，已成为当前我国农业和农村经济的一个重要课题。从影响农地流转的因素来看，包括农户特征、资源禀赋、社会环境等因素，但其中农地的养老保障功能和农民职业分化对农地的流转影响目前还没有得到足够重视。因此，本项目从农民分化、农地流转与农民养老保障之间的内在逻辑关系出发，在农民分化视角下，分析了不同阶层农民对农地流转、养老保障的认知意愿及行为选择；探寻农民养老保障模式、水平与农地流转方式及流转市场发育程度之间的内在逻辑关系；衡量它们之间的影响效应；以及进行了农地流转及养老保障政策体系设计与创新，这对于创新农地经营制度、增加农民收入、促进农村社会经济快速发展具有重要的理论和实践意义。. 主要研究发现：（1）农民分化对不同土地产权类型的偏好与他们本身的阶层属性和特点呈显著相关。（2）农民分化导致不同农民阶层的土地产权需求不同，进而影响了农村土地流转行为，并且影响因素存在显著差异。（3）农民分化特征潜变量对农地流转意愿的影响在5%水平上显著，而且农民分化特征每提高一个单位，农户农地流转意愿就会增加0.634个单位。（4）农地流转市场发育程度对农民水平分化具有显著正向影响，且通过5%水平上显著性检验；而农地流转市场发育程度对农民垂直分化也具有负向显著影响，且通过10%水平上显著性检验。（5）农地流转市场发育程度对农民养老保障模式选择有着显著影响，并且农地流转市场发育程度每提高一个单位，农民愿意选择社会养老保障方式的概率就增加38.2%。（6）在影响农民养老保障方式选择的众多因素中，农地流转市场发育程度、农民阶层分化分别在5%和1%水平上通过显著性检验。. 政策启示：（1）完善农地权能结构，满足不同阶层农民的产权需求；（2）培育新型农民，促进农民非农产业转移；（3）加速户籍改革，完善农村社保制度，弱化土地保障功能；（4）健全农地流转中介和服务体系，降低交易成本；（5）明确政府在农地流转过程中的角色定位。