公交导向多模式疏散交通网络设计理论与方法

The network design for emergency evacuation has some disadvantages in domestic and foreign research results, such as built model could not contain characters of multimodal evacuation network, the algorithm efficiency could not provide enough support for network with large-scale or changing topology, evacuation traffic organization is lack of support for public transit and evacuation modes need more cooperation, etc. This proposal is to focus on the emergency evacuation demand with exploding generation, wide range distribution and high-scale composition of low-mobility population. And we want to explore the intensive principle of hierarchy evacuation network and establish public-transit evacuation locating model. Also, we would establish evacuation strategy model and adaptability analysis method based on transit-oriented, which could give the alternative set for traffic organization strategy. Then, we want to illustrate the gaming mechanism between public transit and private vehicle and the principle of route selection that could explain the relationship between route planning and traffic organization. The principles would indicate to build optimized evacuation network design model and private vehicle evacuation network model based on oversaturated control strategy. Finally we would give methods for traffic network design for transit-oriented multi-modal evacuation, design simulation software and launch field study. The expecting result would provide tough theoretical support for actualizing multimodal evacuation planning and increasing evacuation efficiency. Meantime, result could be meaningful for low-mobility population caring and social justice in traffic participant.

国内外关于应急疏散网络设计的研究存在诸多不足，如模型构建未能充分体现多模式疏散网络特点、算法性能不足以支持大规模和变拓扑网络设计要求、疏散交通组织缺乏对公共交通的支持、不同疏散方式间缺乏协调等。为此，本项目拟聚焦“时间上爆发式生成、空间上大范围分布、构成上低行动力人群占高比重”的应急疏散需求，探索疏散网络分层集约化构造原理，建立公交疏散集结点选址模型；提出公交导向的应急交通组织策略设计模型及适应性分析方法，构建应急交通组织备选策略集；解析公共交通和个体交通间的博弈机制及择路原则，揭示路径规划与交通组织的交互作用机理，建立公交导向组织下的公共交通疏散网络优化模型和基于过饱和控制的个体交通疏散网络优化模型；开发形成公交导向多模式疏散网络系统设计方法与仿真软件，并开展实证研究。预期成果可为实施多模式疏散规划、提高应急疏散效率提供理论支持，对关怀低行动力人群、保障交通的社会公平性也具有现实意义。

公交汽车作为大容量交通工具，以其为主要运输方式的应急疏散具有重要意义。项目组聚焦“时间上爆发式生成、空间上大范围分布、构成上低行动力人群占高比重”的应急疏散需求，建立公交疏散集结点选址模型；提出公交导向的应急交通组织策略设计模型及适应性分析方法；解析公共交通和个体交通间的博弈机制及择路原则，揭示路径规划与交通组织的交互作用机理；建立公交导向组织下的公共交通疏散网络优化模型，开发公交导向多模式疏散网络可视化系统与仿真平台，并开展实证研究。具体包括：.1、利用城市轨道交通和地面公交在内的多模式复合拓扑网络，设计了突发事件下的应急接驳公交疏散网络，并提出了三种复杂网络设计与优化的算法与乘客等待时间延误的计算方法，建立了应急接驳公交驻车点选址模型。.2、从“点—线—面”三个层级构建应急交通组织策略，提出了交叉口公交导向渠化、公交专用可逆车道、公交分步疏散策略集合，并基于多目标粒子群算法构建了多目标的公交疏散路径规划模型。.3、基于对多源异构交通数据处理与低行动力人群的出行特征分析，建立了一种融合行走倾向性和元胞自动机的过街行人流改进模型与城市轨道交通车站的重要性量化评价模型，有利于公交导向多模式疏散策略的开展和实施。.4、通过搭建本地城市轨道交通和常规公交运营数据库，构建了应急故障情境下多模式公共交通网络状态信息可视化系统。并以MATLAB的Simulink为开发环境，构建了交通网络通用仿真平台。依托工程项目，在南京、宁波等多地开展实证研究。.项目研究成果构造了公交导向的多模式疏散交通网络，并提出了相应的应急交通组织策略和设计模型，为实施多模式疏散规划与提高应急疏散效率提供了理论支持。