房价上涨对消费结构升级及分化的冲击研究

Adhering to the concept of shared development and promoting the upgrading of consumption structure is an important way to meet the needs of people's better life. At present, China's housing assets account for a high proportion of total household assets, and housing price rise may impact the upgrading of residents' consumption structure. This project focuses on the impact mechanism and impact effect of housing price rise on the upgrading path of residents' consumption structure. Firstly, based on the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System, this project identifies the elasticity of commodity demand expenditure, and embeds the middle-to-high quality consumption into the consumption structure index, thereby quantifies the degree of differentiation of consumption structure. Secondly, within the framework of consumer choice theory, this project discusses the multiple impacts of housing price rise on the upgrading of consumption structure, reveals the wealth effect and liquidity constraint effect of housing price rise on the upgrading of consumption structure, and analyzes the differentiation of consumption structure caused by the impact of housing price rise on the heterogeneous household consumption structure. Finally, this project examines the impact of housing price rise on the upgrading of consumption structure and the differentiation of consumption structure from the macro and micro dimensions. The research conclusions of this project have policy reference value for promoting the upgrading of consumption structure and restraining the differentiation of consumption structure.

坚持共享发展理念，促进消费结构升级，是满足人民美好生活需要的重要途径。当前我国住房资产占家庭总资产比重偏高，房价上涨可能冲击居民消费结构升级路径。本项目重点研究房价上涨对消费结构升级及分化的冲击机制和效果。首先，基于非线性几近完美需求系统模型识别商品需求支出弹性，将中高端消费嵌入消费结构指数，进而量化消费结构分化程度。其次，在消费者选择理论框架内，讨论房价上涨对消费结构升级冲击的多重情形，揭示房价上涨对消费结构升级的财富效应和流动性约束效应，并分析房价上涨对异质性家庭消费结构冲击导致的消费结构分化。最后，从宏观和微观双重维度检验房价上涨对消费结构升级和消费结构分化的冲击效果。本项目研究结论对促进消费结构升级和抑制消费结构分化具有政策参考价值。

坚持共享发展理念，促进消费结构升级，是实现人民美好生活需要的重要途径。然而，房价上涨可能冲击居民消费结构升级路径，导致消费结构分化。.基于消费者选择理论,在技术进步、收入增长和外生冲击条件下分析居民消费演进的多重情形。研究表明:技术进步和收入增长共同促进居民消费升级,房价上涨和购房行为等外生冲击对不同群体的预算约束产生异质性影响,进而可能导致居民消费分化;当前居民消费升级趋势稳定,消费降级是一种假象;消费降级舆论反映出当前消费增速下行、消费分化初显和局部消费降级风险等问题。.促进形成强大国内市场的演化逻辑是:经济发展阶段演进促使经济发展模式从投资主导型向消费主导型转变;技术进步推动经济发展战略从出口导向型向内需主导型转变;需求结构演进规律决定政府政策支持国内市场发展;供需结构性错配需要通过供给侧结构性改革提升国内供需质量。.利用中国35个大中城市面板数据，实证检验了房价对居民消费结构升级的影响机制和效果。研究表明：总体上，房价抑制居民消费结构升级，这种抑制作用在不同消费结构升级阶段、不同级别城市、不同区域存在差异；边际消费倾向是房价影响消费结构升级的中介变量，即房价上涨显著降低居住、交通通信两类消费的边际消费倾向，显著提升食品、家庭设备、医疗保健和文教娱乐四类消费的边际消费倾向。.我国收入分配制度遵循从重效率向重公平转变的演进逻辑，经历了克服平均主义，效率优先、兼顾公平，兼顾效率和公平、更加重视公平，促进共同富裕四个发展阶段。初次分配是收入分配的主导机制，需要提供公平分配秩序；再分配是收入分配的重要手段，需要增加民生性和保障性支出；三次分配是收入分配的有益补充，需要设计激励相容的政策体系。