区域房价分化与家庭资产配置：机制、识别及政策含义

This project is aimed at identifying the risk of the house prices of different cities and analyzing the impact of housing price risk and household income risk as well as its combined effects on family investment decision-making behavior and its policy implications considering the significant differentiation of current domestic housing prices among different levels of cities. Firstly, the project uses the structural model of housing supply and demand factors, and estimates the elasticity of housing supply of each city in China effectively controlling the influence of location and geographic factors; it also classifies the housing market risk of various cities according to the time and housing supply elasticity. Secondly, we analyze the relationship between family income risk and housing prices and its effects on housing investment decision while including labor income risk into the housing investment decision model using microcosmic household survey data. Thirdly, we establish the family life cycle asset allocation model based on Epstein-Zin preferences and investigate the effects of family housing investment on the asset allocation behavior to explain "asset allocation puzzle" phenomenon of Chinese households. Finally, we analyze the impact of price risk, household income risk and its combined effects on family investment behavior, and provide reference for residents to guide rational investment behavior, and for the government to build long-term mechanism of stable and healthy development of Chinese housing market.

本项目旨在针对当前国内不同级别城市之间房价明显分化的现象，科学识别不同城市的房价风险，分析房价风险与家庭收入风险及其联合效应对家庭投资决策行为产生的影响及政策含义。首先，采用同时考虑住房供给因素和需求因素的结构化模型，控制城市区位和地理特征因素的影响，有效估算中国各个城市的住房供给弹性，并根据时间段和住房供给弹性大小对不同城市住房市场风险进行分类。其次，将劳动收入风险纳入家庭住房投资决策模型当中，采用家庭微观调查数据，分析家庭收入风险与住房价格的关联性及其对住房投资决策的影响。再次，建立基于Epstein-Zin偏好的家庭生命周期资产配置模型，考察房价风险背景下家庭住房投资对于资产配置行为的影响，解释中国居民家庭的“资产配置之谜”现象。最后，分析房价风险与家庭收入风险及其联合效应对家庭投资决策行为的影响，进而为引导居民理性投资行为、制订房地产平稳健康发展的长效机制等提供决策参考。

针对当前国内不同城市之间房价明显分化的现象，本课题旨在科学识别不同城市的房价风险，并在此背景下分析住房产权和住房条件差异对家庭投资决策行为的影响及其产生的经济和社会效应。首先，基于不同区域住房同质化假设以及家庭可能存在“收入-套期保值”动机假设，理论分析并解释房价风险、家庭收入风险及其联合效应对于家庭投资决策行为的影响机制。其次，以中国家庭微观调查数据、主要城市房价统计数据和微观房价交易数据等为样本，一系列的实证研究发现，房价上涨和家庭住房市值都明显提升了家庭的主观风险偏好以及家庭的股市参与率，房价和住房市值对于家庭资产配置行为的影响程度与家庭房产是否增值、是否有购房负债、是首套房还是多套房等条件紧密相关。再次，居民之间的住房产权和住房条件差异对于居民财富差距、主观幸福感和阶层认同也都将产生影响。具体来说，1995-2008年间，住房拥有率的增长是缓解财富分配的重要力量，而2008年之后，住房拥有率的下降导致财富分配再次集中；同时，住房差异可以通过住房产权滋生的资产性收益渠道和住房市值引起的潜在再投资收益渠道等影响家庭总收入并加剧家庭之间的收入不平等；此外，住房财富和邻里环境会影响户主的主观社会地位认同，房屋产权、面积、社区品质等住房的消费品属性和住房消费分层本身都对阶层认同的产生及阶层分化也产生了重要影响。最后，我们还发现不同城市规模对于移民购房意愿的影响存在倒“U”型关系。. 研究的科学意义在于，一方面应警惕短期内房价快速上涨带来的“财富幻觉”使居民承担过多的风险而不利于国民经济的稳定健康发展；另一方面，为进一步落实十九大提出坚持“房子是用来住的、不是用来炒的”定位，政府可以通过改善居民的住房条件来引导居民理性的住房需求，建立合理的房产增值收益分配体系，以缓解住房不平等引起的居民在财富分配、主观幸福感和社会阶层分化等不公平问题。