房价上涨经历、风险收益预期及家庭投资决策

The urban residential property market in China has a rapid development, and housing price increases quickly since the housing reform in 1990s. Chinese urban households have stronger preference on housing investment rather than consumption, stock investment and others. This study argues that the continuing rise of housing price shapes the optimistic expectation of households on housing market. The optimistic expectation makes households increase housing investment on one hand, while, on the other hand, cuts down other types of investment since returns on other assets are expected lower than housing. First, this study theoretically analyzes the impact of the housing market expectation on the investment decision based on a representative household model. Second, this study constructs a measure of expectation based on the heterogeneous experience of households over life. The measure could assist us to empirically discover the impacts of expectation on housing investment, stock investment and human capital investment based on micro level survey data in China. Third, this study distinguishes the heterogeneous impacts of expectation on different types of households. Specifically, the optimistic expectation on housing market increases the expected wealth of households who own housing asset and reduces the expected default risk of households who own mortgage.

我国自上个世纪末实行住房改革以来，城市住房市场发展迅速，房价屡创新高，家庭偏爱住房投资，挤出了消费以及其他领域的投资，引发了一系列社会问题。本课题认为长期的房价上涨经历直接塑造了我国城市家庭乐观的住房市场预期，一方面促使家庭拥有更多的住房资产；另一方面相较于较高住房收益预期，社会其他资产收益明显偏低，减弱了家庭投资其他资产的动力。首先，本课题理论分析了住房市场预期变化对于家庭投资决策的影响以及传导机制；其次，本课题提出了一个基于家庭经历的异质性住房市场预期的测度方法，在微观层面上考察了住房预期变化对于家庭住房投资、风险资产配置以及家庭长期人力资本投入的影响；再次，本课题细化了住房市场经历对于不同背景家庭的异质性影响，区分了乐观市场预期对于家庭未来投资决策可能产生的财富效应，以及乐观市场预期对于高负债家庭预期风险的减弱作用。

我国自上个世纪末实行住房改革以来，城市住房市场发展迅速，房价屡创新高，住房的可负担性日益恶化，然而城市住房需求却依旧旺盛，这种现象被一些学者称为中国住房需求之谜。本课题认为我国住房价格长期持续上涨的经历，塑造了居民高收益低风险的乐观预期，增强了对住房的投资倾向，降低了波动略强的风险资产及回报较慢的人力资本的投资。本课题建立了一个以家庭经历为基础的异质性预期的测度方法，使研究预期在家庭住房决策微观层面的作用成为可能，丰富现有文献对于住房需求理论的认识；运用中国家庭金融调查（CHFS）的微观调查数据，发现这种经历塑造的预期确实增加了家庭住房投资，降低了股票、基金等风险资产及家庭人力资本投资，相对低学历低收入及相对高年龄的居民中影响尤为明显。此外，本研究也重点分析了经历形成的预期对住房市场的影响，包括外地人在购买住房时因为信息不对称及高房价经历的锚定效应，会比本地人支付更高的房价，房屋中介运用该乐观预期使用价格手段竞争二手房挂牌或独家代理，推高住房价格。本项目研究基本达到了预期的研究目标，完成论文9篇（其中6篇已经接受发表，3篇在审）；培养博士后、博士生三人。研究成果加深了对于不同城市房地产市场差异的认识，为更好地规范和调控住房市场，使住房回归居住本能提供理论支持。